Market Roundup
•French CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.2%, 1.6% forecast, 1.8% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Sep): -1.2%, -0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Sep): -1.2%, -0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Sep): 1.5%, 1.9% forecast, 2.2% previous
• French PPI (YoY) (Aug): -6.30%, -5.70% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.2% , 0.3% previous
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY): 2.4%, 2.7% previous
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.5%, 1.9% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep): -0.6%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Sep) 17K, 13K forecast, 4K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Sep) 6.0%, 6.0% forecast, 6.0% previous
•German Unemployment (Sep) 2.823M, 2.801M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Sep) 2.806M, 2.872M previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Sep) 96.2, 96.5 forecast, 96.5 previous
•EU Business Climate (Sep) -0.76, -0.62 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Sep) -12.9, -12.9 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sep) 10.9, 11.3 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Sep) 6.2, 6.2 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Sep) 6.7, 5.6 forecast, 6.4 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Sep) -10.9, -9.8 forecast, previous
•Belgium CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.06%, 2.86% previous
•Belgium CPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.50%, 0.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug) - 0.2% 0.2%
•12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug) - 2.6% 2.7%
•12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Aug) - -102.84B forecast, -100.60B previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug) - 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug) - 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Aug) - 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) - 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Aug) - 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) - 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Aug) - 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) - 0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) (CAD) - 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:00 Dallas Fed PCE (Aug) - 1.70% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) - 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) - 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) - 72.1 forecast, 73.0 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) - 67.9 forecast, 69.0 previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) - 61.3 forecast, 62.9 previous
•14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) - 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jul) - 0.94B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jul) -2.88B previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday after data showed that inflation in France and Spain rose less than anticipated, leading traders to increase their bets on an October rate cut from the European Central Bank. Harmonized French inflation decreased to an annual rate of 1.5% in September, down from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate fell to 1.7% in September from 2.4% in August. The derivatives market indicated that traders now see nearly an 80% chance of a cut at the ECB's meeting next month, a significant rise from negligible odds just a week prior. Following the data, the euro slipped to $1.1128 from $1.1164.Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Friday but remained close to a two-and-a-half-year peak against the dollar as sterling was supported by a growing risk appetite following China’s stimulus plan and the ongoing monetary policy divergence between the Bank of England and other major central banks. In the latest move, China's central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, with more fiscal measures expected to be announced before China's week-long holidays starting on Oct. 1. Investors now await the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - later in the day, with the size of the next rate cut in November still up for debate. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained near multi-month highs on Friday, buoyed by hopes for substantial Chinese stimulus that lifted risk assets and commodities. Additionally, the dollar found support from a stable rate outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with markets pricing in only a 20% chance of an easing at the upcoming policy meeting in November. Expectations indicate that the RBA's current cash rate of 4.35% could decline to 3.31% by the end of next year, in contrast to 2.93% for the Fed and 1.75% for the ECB.. The Aussie stood at $0.6889, having rallied 1.1% overnight to as high as $0.6904 Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6927(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6814(Sep 24th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell against the yen on Friday as the Japanese currency strengthened following Ishiba's victory in the leadership race for the next prime minister of Japan. Ishiba, a critic of past monetary stimulus, stated in an interview that the central bank is on the right policy track with its rate hikes so far.Markets had anticipated the win of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi, a vocal opponent of further interest rate hikes, in one of the country's most unpredictable leadership contests in decades. The yen gained more than 1% to 143.05 yen per dollar, from 146.49 earlier in the day, its weakest since Sept. 3. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Friday, ahead of a key U.S. inflation print for signals on the scope of Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts
Commodities Recap
Gold's record run paused on Friday but is still poised for its strongest quarter since 2016, following a rally sparked by a significant U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are preparing for an important inflation report scheduled for later in the day.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,666.50 per ounce as of 1115 GMT, below the all-time peak of $2,685.42 hit in the previous session. It is heading for its best quarter since the first three months of 2016.U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,688.90.
Oil prices held steady on Friday but remained on track for a weekly fall as investors weighed expectations for increased output from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against fresh stimulus from top importer China.
Brent crude futures were up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $71.68 per barrel as of 1130 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.78.
