Market Roundup
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Jul): 3.1%, 3.0% forecast, -3.9% previous
• Japan Leading Index (Jul): 109.3, 109.5 forecast, 109.1 previous
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.4% forecast, -2.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.2%, 1.6% forecast, 1.8% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Sep): -1.2%, -0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Sep): -1.2%, -0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Sep): 1.5%, 1.9% forecast, 2.2% previous
• French PPI (YoY) (Aug): -6.30%, -5.70% previous
•French PPI (MoM) (Aug): 0.2%, , 0.3% previous
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY): 2.4%, 2.7% previous
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Sep): 1.5%, 1.9% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep): -0.6%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 German Unemployment Change (Sep): 13K, 2K previous
•08:00 German Unemployment Rate (Sep): 6.0%, 6.0% previous
•08:00 German Unemployment (Sep): 2.801M previous
•08:00 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Sep): 2.872M previous
•09:00 Italian PPI (MoM) (Aug): 1.3% previous
•09:00 Italian PPI (YoY) (Aug): -1.1% previous
•09:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Sep): 96.5 forecast, 96.6 previous
•09:00 EU Business Climate (Sep): -0.62 previous
•09:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Sep): -12.9 forecast, -13.5 previous
•09:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Sep): 11.3
•09:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Sep): 6.1 previous
•09:00 EU Sentiment (Sep): 5.6, 6.3 previous
•09:00 09:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Sep): -9.8 forecast, -9.7 previous
•Belgium CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.86% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday after data revealed that inflation in France and Spain rose less than anticipated, leading traders to increase their bets on an October rate cut from the European Central Bank. Harmonized French inflation decreased to an annual rate of 1.5% in September, down from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate fell to 1.7% in September from 2.4% in August. The derivatives market indicated that traders now see nearly an 80% chance of a cut at the ECB's meeting next month, a significant rise from negligible odds just a week prior. Following the data, the euro slipped to $1.1128 from $1.1164.Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly against the dollar on Friday following a range of U.S. data suggesting a relatively healthy economy. The greenback began paring losses after reports revealed that weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to a four-month low of 218,000, below the 225,000 forecast by economists. Additionally, other reports indicated that corporate profits grew at a stronger pace than previously estimated in the second quarter, while gross domestic product remained unchanged at a growth rate of 3%. A measure of new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly rose in August, although business spending on equipment seems to have declined in the third quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3335(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3274(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained near multi-month highs on Friday, buoyed by hopes for substantial Chinese stimulus that lifted risk assets and commodities. Additionally, the dollar found support from a stable rate outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with markets pricing in only a 20% chance of an easing at the upcoming policy meeting in November. Expectations indicate that the RBA's current cash rate of 4.35% could decline to 3.31% by the end of next year, in contrast to 2.93% for the Fed and 1.75% for the ECB.. The Aussie stood at $0.6889, having rallied 1.1% overnight to as high as $0.6904 Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6927(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6836(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6814(Sep 24th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell against the yen on Friday as the Japanese currency strengthened following Ishiba's victory in the leadership race for the next prime minister of Japan. Ishiba, a critic of past monetary stimulus, stated in an interview that the central bank is on the right policy track with its rate hikes so far.Markets had anticipated the win of hardline nationalist Sanae Takaichi, a vocal opponent of further interest rate hikes, in one of the country's most unpredictable leadership contests in decades. The yen gained more than 1% to 143.05 yen per dollar, from 146.49 earlier in the day, its weakest since Sept. 3. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average surged over 2% on Friday as the market reacted to Ishiba's victory in the leadership race to become the next prime minister of Japan.
The Nikkei 225 ended 2.57% higher at 38,847.56, its highest close since July 19,
Commodities Recap
Oil prices recovered from earlier losses on Friday, inching higher, but they remained set for a weekly decline as Investors weighed expectations of increased output from Libya and the larger OPEC+ group against new stimulus measures from leading importer China.
Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.21%, at $71.75 per barrel, as of 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.27%, to $67.85.
