Market Roundup
•U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Aug) 1.0%, 1.8% previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) -0.3% -0.1% 0.0% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%,0.1%forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Aug)1.3%,1.3% forecast 1.5% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.4%, 0.4% forecast 0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%,0.2% forecast -0.4% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) -0.7%, -0.6% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Italian Trade Balance (Aug) 2.050B, 8.940B forecast, 7.829B previous
•Italian Trade Balance EU (Aug) 0.17B, 1.83B previous
•Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.085% ,3.230% previous
•Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.443%, 2.483% previous
•Spanish 7-Year Obligacion Auction 2.716% ,2.922% previous
•EU Trade Balance (Aug) 1.0B, 6.9B forecast,12.7B previous
•US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) -12.8, 8.6 forecast,23.2 previous
•US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Oct) 36.2, 31.5 previous
•US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Oct) 25.20, 12.50 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug 0.1% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) 33 32 previous
•14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 76B forecast, 80B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:45 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
•14:45 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•15:45 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s government survived two no-confidence votes in parliament, easing near-term political uncertainty. Lecornu secured crucial backing from the Socialist Party after pledging to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform until after the 2027 presidential election. The two motions, brought by the hard-left France Unbowed and the far-right National Rally, received 271 and 144 votes respectively well short of the 289 required to topple the days-old government. The outcome offered a measure of political stability for France, lending modest support to the euro. The euro hit a one-week high and was up 0.12% at $1.1661 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.16680(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1740(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1611(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1538(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Thursday after the UK’s GDP data came in line with expectations. Official figures showed the economy grew by a modest 0.1% in August from July, matching analyst forecasts and offering some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of her November budget. However, the sluggish pace of expansion is unlikely to deter the government from proceeding with planned tax hikes, which investors have largely priced in. The UK continues to face the dual challenge of weak growth and the highest inflation among advanced economies. The Bank of England, which kept interest rates unchanged at 4% last month, remains cautious as it balances inflation risks with slowing momentum. Market participants now await next week’s inflation report, which will be pivotal in shaping expectations for whether the BoE opts to cut rates in November, December, or early 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3481(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3291(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3231(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Thursday after unemployment hit near four-year high, reviving expectations of a near-term rate cut. Australia’s unemployment rate rose sharply in September, hitting a near four-year high as more people entered the labor market, boosting expectations for further policy easing. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed employment increased by 14,900 in September, following a revised 11,800 decline in August and falling short of forecasts for a 20,000 gain. The jobless rate climbed to 4.5% the highest since November 2021 surpassing both the 4.3% consensus and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s projected peak. While the RBA has noted volatility in monthly labor data, employment growth has slowed markedly to 1.3% year-on-year from 3.5% in January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6685(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6471(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.64507(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar little changed against Japanese yen on Thursday as investors monitored Japan’s political uncertainty after parliament failed to set a date for a vote on the next prime minister. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), weakened by internal divisions, is in talks with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) as LDP leader Sanae Takaichi seeks support to secure victory in the upcoming leadership vote. Takaichi’s succession had appeared assured until the LDP’s long-time coalition partner, Komeito, ended their 26-year alliance last week, forcing her to seek new political backing. JIP leader Hirofumi Yoshimura said on Wednesday that his party could support Takaichi if both sides reach an agreement on key policy priorities submitted to the LDP. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.42(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.70 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.42 (SMA 20).
EquitiesRecap
Europe's tech and luxury stocks slumped on Wednesday after disappointing results from industry heavyweights ASML and LVMH, while caution loomed ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision.
At (GMT 12:20 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax was flat, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.95 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold extended its record-breaking rally on Thursday as investors sought safety amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a partial U.S. government shutdown.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,242.38 per ounce, as of 1208 GMT. Earlier, bullion touched a record high of $4,247.49, climbing for a fifth consecutive session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.4% at $4,258.50.
Oil prices were steady on Thursday as traders assessed the potential impact of a possible halt in India’s imports of Russian crude, a move that could shift demand toward other global suppliers and tighten market balances.
Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.87%, to $62.45 a barrel by 1135 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 56 cents, or 0.96%, to $58.83.
