Market Roundup
• Trump says 'very close' to ending Ukraine war
• December Fed meeting minutes due Tuesday
• Sweden Trade Balance (Nov) 11.60B, 1.50B previous
•France Jobseekers Total (Nov) 3,129.3K, 3,150.8K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 15:00 US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov)1.0% forecast, 1.9% previous
• 15:00 US Pending Home Sales Index (Nov) 76.3 previous
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.000M forecast, -1.274M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.742M previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Dec)-10.4 previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.228M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production 0.033M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories 1.100M forecast, 4.808M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased slightly on Monday as attention shifted to the Fed’s year-end meeting. Investor focus on the holiday-curtailed week will be on minutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank cut rates earlier this month and projected just one more cut for next year while traders have priced in at least two more. The prospect of the Fed cutting rates next year has kept the dollar under pressure, while the spectre of a new Fed Chair that may be dovish and willing to lower rates looms large. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, was 0.08% lower at 97.953, on track for a 9.7% drop for the year, its steepest since 2017. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased slightly against dollar in thin holiday trading on Monday with little in the way of scheduled events that could move the currency until the new year. Trading has been thin around the Christmas holiday period in Britain, and remains so in the run-up to the New Year holiday.That has left sterling still largely shaped by the Bank of England meeting earlier in December. The BoE cut interest rates after a narrow vote by policymakers, but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further.Manufacturing activity data due on Friday will give the next indication of the state of Britain's economy. Important inflation and employment data are not due until well into January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased from 14-month high on Monday as Australian dollar was weighed down by lower precious metals prices. Silver retreated after touching a record peak above $80 an ounce on Monday while gold slipped from levels close to historic highs as investors booked profits. Spot platinum slid by 6.9% to $2,281.15 an ounce after touching a record peak of $2,478.50 while palladium plunged 11.9% to $1,694.75 an ounce. Outperforming gold, silver has gained 181% so far this year, driven by its designation as a U.S. critical mineral, supply shortages and rising industrial and investor appetite.Markets are looking out for the release of the Fed's December meeting minutes, due on Tuesday, for clues on the interest rate outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Monday as investors assessed timing of more interest rate hikes in Japan and the possibility of intervention in thin end-of-year trading.Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need to continue raising rates, a summary of opinions at their policy meeting in December showed on Monday.The summary of opinions released on Monday showed many board members saw the need for further increases to the rate, which remained significantly negative in inflation-adjusted terms.Some board members said Japan’s ultra-low rates are weakening the yen and fueling inflation, signaling FX moves will be key in future rate-hike talks.The summary showed rising board confidence that Japan’s economy can absorb higher U.S. tariffs, allowing firms to continue raising wages next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were largely flat on Monday as trading resumed following the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays, with gains in basic resource firms offsetting declines in defense stocks..
At (GMT 13:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Monday as investors weighed talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine against potential oil supply disruption in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures rose $1.27, or 2.1%, to $61.91 a barrel by 1200 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.29, or 2.3%, at $58.03.
Gold slipped from levels close to historic highs as investors booked profits and a market perception of reduced geopolitical risks curbed safe-haven buying.
Spot gold was down 1.9% at $4,448.23 an ounce by 1148 GMT after hitting a record $4,549.71 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 1.9% to $4,467.90.
