Market Roundup
•French Current Account (Oct) -2.60B, -2.40B previous
•French Exports (Oct) 48.7B, 48.3B previous
•French Imports (Oct) 56.4B, 56.7B previous
•French Reserve Assets Total (Nov) 275,572.0M, 276,255.0M previous
•French Trade Balance (Oct) -7.7B, -8.0B forecast, -8.4B previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Nov) 724,555.0B, 718,727.0B previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.5%, 0.9% forecast, 1.3% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 2.6%, 0.7% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q3) 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q3) 169,112.9K, 169,064.1K forecast, 169,064.1K previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.4%
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov) 4.0% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Nov) 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Nov) 40.0K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov) 28K forecast, -46K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 202K forecast, 12K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (Nov) 62.6% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 160K forecast, -28K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Nov) 7.7% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Nov) 4.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Employment Change (Nov) 25.0K forecast, 14.5K previous
•12:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Nov) 25.6K previous
•12:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Nov) -11.2K previous
•12:30 Canada Participation Rate (Nov) 64.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.6%, 6.5% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 2.6% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 3.2% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec) 76.9 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 73.1 forecast, 71.8 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Dec) 63.9 previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Nov) 16.00M forecast, 16.20M previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov) 52.2 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 53.1 forecast, 52.0 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 478 forecast, 477 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:15 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro struggled to maintain gains, heading toward a flat week against the dollar as political turmoil gripped France. Macron met allies and parliament leaders on Thursday as he sought to swiftly appoint a new prime minister to replace Michel Barnier, who resigned a day after opposition lawmakers voted to oust his government. The European Central Bank is not expected to react to heightened political instabilityin Europe when it meets next week, with traders and economists fairly certain it will trim rates by 25 basis points on Dec. 12.The euro had surged on Thursday, fueled by market relief that France had temporarily avoided a more turbulent political outcome. However, it slipped 0.2% on the day to $1.057275 and was on track to finish the week largely unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0605(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0637(30SMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0458(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0417(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged up against dollar on Friday as attention turned to upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November. Investors were eagerly awaiting the data, which could provide insights into the pace of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Payrolls are expected to have risen by 200,000 jobs last month, a significant rebound after the minimal 2,000-job increase in October, the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4.2%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, gained 0.10% to 105.82, recovering slightly after falling to a three-week low in the previous session. Sterling held steady against the dollar at $1.2760.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2735(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2789 (SMA 30).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2629(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Friday as the Australian dollar faced continued bearish pressure as investors anticipated more aggressive rate cuts by the RBA. Australia's economy grew by 0.3% on a quarterly basis for the three months ending in September, according to data released on Wednesday.The Australian dollar has also been affected by worries about China's economic difficulties and US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff threats. At GMT 13:06, The Aussie was trading down 0.63% to $0.6411. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6483(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6491(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6406(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6382(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Friday as markets awaited U.S. job data and digested a politically turbulent week.U.S. non-farm payrollsare expected to have increased by 200,000 last month, according to a Reuters survey, after rising by only 12,000 in October, the lowest since December 2020. The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 4.2%.Markets nowsee about a 72% chance that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it convenes on Dec. 17-18, up from 66.5% a week ago, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The dollar was up 0.11% against the yen at 150.10. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.97 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.62 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.82(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.50(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks ticked up on Friday as investors awaited U.S. payrolls data, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy move later in the month. At the same time, market participants closely monitored the political situation in France.
At GMT 13:06,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.32 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.42 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Friday but were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, as investors stayed cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,637.49 per ounce by 1130 GMT, while U.S. gold futures increased 0.4% to $2,659.00.
Oil prices dropped on Friday as analysts maintained their forecasts of a supply surplus in 2025, despite OPEC+'s decision to delay planned supply increases and extend significant output cuts until the end of 2026.
Brent crude futures dropped 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.43 per barrel at 1128 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 65 cents, or 1%, to $67.65 per barrel.
