Market Roundup
• Canada Housing Starts (Oct) 232.8K, 265.0K forecast, 279.2K previous
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly -2.50K, -11.25K previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 6.1%, 5.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 1.9% previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) 1.4% forecast, -1.3% previous
•15:00 US Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Aug) 0.6% previous
•15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov) 37 forecast, 37 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
•15:30 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•16:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•17:00 UK BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited economic data due later in the week for health of U.S. economy. A backlog of U.S. economic data, delayed by the federal government shutdown, is due for release this week, including Thursday’s key September nonfarm payrolls report.Despite signs of further slowing in the U.S. economy from recent private-sector indicators, investors have scaled back expectations for a December rate cut, citing uncertainty created by the data gaps. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson added to the caution on Monday, saying the central bank needs to “proceed slowly” with additional easing.Market pricing now reflects less than a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from more than 60% earlier this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed versus the dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited British inflation data on Wednesday which could provide additional clues about the Bank of England policy path.While investors were becoming increasingly aware that it will take time to clarify the trajectory of the U.S. economy as U.S. agencies clear a backlog of data, British inflation figures are likely to affect expectations for future BoE cuts.Many central banks have largely completed their normalisation cycles, but traders expect the BoE to cut rates by 59 basis points by December 2026, compared with 54 bps late on Monday, while pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut next month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar crept higher against the US dollar on Tuesday, as investors absorbed the RBA's November meeting minutes.On Tuesday, Australia's central bank indicated it may keep the cash rate at its current level if incoming data surprises to the upside, but there are alternative scenarios in which further policy easing might be considered..Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November 3–4 policy meeting showed that the board viewed the current cash rate of 3.6% as slightly restrictive, but noted that this may no longer be the case, pointing to the recent surge in housing credit to investors. A higher-than-expected third-quarter inflation print led the central bank to project inflation remaining above the 2–3% target band until mid-2026, settling at 2.6%, slightly above the 2.5% midpoint of its target range. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The US dollar held near a nine-month high on Tuesday as the yen remained under pressure from fiscal concerns and policy uncertainty at the Bank of Japan. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed alarm on Tuesday over recent currency swings, after the yen fell to new nine-month lows versus the dollar. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda later on Tuesday to discuss monetary and fiscal policies, which has heightened market interest given the yen's continuing weakness. Meanwhile, Japan's weaker-than-expected third-quarter GDP report on Monday has put to pressure on the BoJ to defer possible rate hikes, further damaging the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks sank on Monday, with Germany nearing a five-month bottom, as a widespread risk-off attitude gripped global markets, fueled by concerns over an overvalued tech sector and fading hopes for an impending interest rate decrease from the US Federal Reserve.
At (GMT 14:12),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.45 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.61 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.73 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week on Tuesday, as fading predictions on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month dampened demand ahead of delayed US economic data releases this week.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,039.71 per ounce as of 1213 GMT, after hitting its lowest since November 10 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9% to $4,039 per ounce.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday, rebounding ground after early losses, as traders balanced the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows against a predicted supply surplus next year.
Brent crude was up 12 cents, or 0.2%, at $64.32 a barrel by 1330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $60.
