Market Roundup
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) -0.2%, 0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.3%,-0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK Dec Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change-0.3%,-0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Dec Construction Output (MoM) -0.5%,-0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Dec U.K. Construction Output (YoY) -3.2%,-1.4% forecast,0.9% previous
•UK Dec GDP (MoM) -0.1%,-0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Dec GDP (YoY) 0.0%,0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•UK Dec Trade Balance -13.99B ,-15.00B forecast,-14.19B previous
•UK Dec Trade Balance Non-EU -3.32B, -2.84B previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4)1.5%,-0.1% forecast,-3.2% previous
•UK Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 0.6%,-0.1% forecast,0.3% previous
•UK Dec Industrial Production (YoY) 0.6%,-0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Dec Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.8%,-0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•UK Dec Manufacturing Production (YoY)2.3%,0.6% forecast,1.3% previous
•UK Labour Productivity (Q3)0.7%,-0.2% forecast,0.7% previous
•Swiss Jan PPI (MoM) -0.5%,-0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•Swiss Jan PPI (YoY) -2.3%,-1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Jan Retail Control (MoM) 0.8% previous
•13:30 US Jan Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Jan Export Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.9% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•13:30 US Jan Import Price Index (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed Business Conditions -4.0 previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.6% forecast,1.2% previous
•13:30 US Feb NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -13.70 forecast,-43.70 previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 219K forecast,218K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast,1,871K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.25K previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) -3.2% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.6% previous
•13:30 US Feb Philly Fed New Orders -17.9 previous
•13:30 US Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -8.0 forecast,-10.6 previous
•14:15 US Jan Industrial Production (YoY) 0.98% previous
•14:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•14:15 US Jan Capacity Utilization Rate 78.8% forecast,78.6% previous
•14:15 US Jan Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•15:00 US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% forecast,-0.9% previous
•15:00 US Dec Business Inventories (MoM) 0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•15:00 US Feb NAHB Housing Market Index 46 forecast,44 previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -67B forecast,-75B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280% previous
16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.270% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:50 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•18:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•18:15 US Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday after comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on the disinflation process in the euro zone lifted sentiment. Investors drew positive inferences after Lagarde told a European Parliament hearing in Brussels that recent economic data out of the euro zone indicated that inflation is heading back to the target as predicted. The focus now shifted to U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data, due at 1330 GMT, and the producer price index numbers, due on Friday. The euro was slightly higher at $1.0736. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0775(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0803 (Feb 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0669 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Thursday following the release of data indicating that the British economy slipped into a recession at the close of 2023 , prompted investors to heighten their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, Britain's gross domestic product contracted by 0.3% in the three months leading up to December. This decline marked the country's entry into a recession during the second half of 2023, following a previous contraction of 0.1% between July and September. Sterling was last down just under 0.1% at $1.2558 from $1.268 right before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2600(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2649 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2542(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2511(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors waited for data on U.S. retail sales and jobless claims . Retail sales data, due at 1330 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET), will provide more clues about the direction of the U.S. economy after inflation came in hotter than expected on Tuesday.Tuesday's price figures caused investors to rein in their expectations for Fed rate cuts, triggering a jump in bond yields and the dollar. On Thursday, investors saw a roughly 45% chance the Fed will cut rates by May, according to money market pricing. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, was slightly lower at 104.6, just below a three-month high of 104.97 touched on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8887 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8922(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8815(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8727(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Thursday as yen climbed despite the Japanese economy falling into a recession. Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted 0.4% on an annualised basis in October-December following the previous quarter's contraction, as consumption of clothing and eating out caused a decline in private consumption, Cabinet Office said on Thursday. The annualised GDP figure translated into a quarterly decrease of 0.1%, confounding the median economist forecast of a rise of 0.3%.Private consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, declined 0.2%, the Cabinet Office said, versus a 0.1% gain seen by economists. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.40(Nov 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.00(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 149.81(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, boosted by gains in French stocks and UK's soft GDP data, while comments by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on the disinflation process in the euro zone lifted sentiment.
At (GMT 13:16 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.11percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.90 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices languished near a two-month trough on Thursday as traders lowered expectations of sooner and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, while markets await a slew of U.S. economic data for further clarity.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,997.10 per ounce, as of 1158 GMT, but hovered near its lowest since Dec. 13 hit on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,009.20.
Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) flagged slowing demand growth this year while a larger than expected jump in U.S. crude inventories also weighed.
Brent crude futures fell 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.23 a barrel by 1008 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $76.20.
