- GBP falls after UK sales disappoint. GBP/USD made low to 1.5607 levels.
- EUR/GBP up to 6 day high at 0.7146 levels.
- UK July Retail sales 0.1% m/m, 4.2% y/y vs previous -0.1%/4.2% revised. 0.4%/4.4% expected.
- UK August CBI Manufacturing order book balance -1 vs previous -10. -10 expected.
- NOK drops after Q2 GDP numbers. EUR/NOK highest since January at 9.2734.
- Norway Q2 GDP -0.1% q/q vs previous +0.1% revised. -0.1% expected.
- Dollar steadies after falling sharply after Fed minutes.
- Switzerland July Trade 3741mln vs previous 3509mln revised.
- Fed's Williams- Raising rates to pop housing bubbles 'very costly'.
- DAX lowest since January 23. Made 10534 low today.
- SSEC closed down 3.4% at 3,664.29 points.
- Turkey high electoral board proposes November 1 as date for snap polls.
- Greek energy min Skourletis argues for elections sooner rather than later.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Initial Claims (August 15 week) consensus 272k, previous 274k.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Continued Claims (August 8 week) consensus 2.265 mn, previous 2.273 mn.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canadian wholesale trade.
- (0830/1230) Brazil's unemployment rate.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) Mexico's statistics institute will release GDP data for the second quarter.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (August) consensus 7.0, previous 5.7.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Existing Home Sales (July) consensus 5.44 mn SAAR, previous 5.49 mn SAAR.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Leading Indicators (July) consensus +0.2% m/m, previous +0.6% m/m.
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) Fed Trade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $2.000 bn).
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1100 levels and currently trading at 1.1160levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1171 and low at 1.1107 levels. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) July 28-29 meeting were slightly more dovish than markets expected, with members of the monetary-policy setting committee concerned about weak inflation, raising the risk that the first interest rate hike will come later than September, the timing broadly anticipated by markets. Pair erased losses and turned back in the green territory as the strengthening EUR/GBP cross on UK retail sales miss continues to push EUR/USD higher. Moreover, renewed optimism surrounding Greece after the nation made a EUR 3.4 billion loan repayment to the ECB, also boosted the European currency higher across the board. Meanwhile, markets now await a series of US economic releases due later today for further momentum on the pair. US weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index will be on the cards. Initial support is seen around at 1.0789 and resistance at 1.1195 levels.
USD/JPY is supported around 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.15 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.79 and currently trading at 123.96 levels. Pair posed a minor recovery in the European trades, as the USD bulls jumped back into the bids mainly driven by a short-covering rally after the major dropped sharply to fresh three-week lows on Wednesday following the release of FOMC minutes which surprised the markets to the downside. US CPI for July ticked lower from 0.3% to 0.1% month-on-month, while the yearly change printed 0.2% and improved from 0.1% previously. The core gauge dropped to 0.1% from June's 0.2% m/m. Markets now await a host of US macro data due for release later tonight for further momentum on the pair. Initial resistance is seen at 125.68 and support is seen at 120.63 levels.
GBP/USD is supported below $1.5700 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5702 and low at 1.5607 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5655 levels. Sterling dropped against the dollar and euro on Thursday after data showed UK retail sales rose by less-than-expected in July. Retail sales volumes inched up 0.1 percent on the month against forecasts of a 0.4 percent increase. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to an intraday low of $1.5635 after the data, from $1.5662 before its release. It edged down to 71.20 pence against the Euro. Total factory orders picked up pace in August while exports to European and overseas markets continue to struggle on the back of a strong sterling, a new survey showed on Thursday. The overall balance of orders within the UK manufacturing sector improved in August to -1%, up from -10% a month before, and comfortably above market estimates, the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) figures showed on Thursday. Looking ahead, we have a busy session with US weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index on the cards. Initial support is seen at 1.5413 and resistance is seen around 1.5734 levels.
NZDUSD is supported around 0.6600 levels and trading at 0.6598 levels and made intraday low at 0.6579 and high at 0.6620 levels. A weak consumer confidence index reading for August and a soft rise in job ads last month did little to weigh down the so-called kiwi on Thursday. Earlier on Thursday ANZ's Consumer Confidence index for August showed a reading of 109.8, down four points from July, and hitting a three-year low. Initial support is seen at 0.6465 and resistance at 0.6789 levels.
AUD/USD is supported around 0.7300 levels and trading at 0.7305 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7372 levels and low at 0.7285 levels. The pair snapped the upside bias and now trades downside after Chinese stock markets opened in the red today and extends weakness fuelling concerns over lowdown in Australia's top trading partner, China. However, rising gold prices coupled with broad based USD weakness helps the Aussie to restrict the losses. Meanwhile, pair will be influenced by a slew of US economic data, including the weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index, to be released later in the US session. Initial support is seen at 0.7225 and resistance at 0.7647 levels.
Equities Recap
Stocks, oil and emerging market currencies plunged on fading expectations for an imminent U.S. rate hike following Federal Reserve meeting minutes stoked anxiety about the health of the global economy.
The FTSEuroFirst index of 300 leading European shares fell 0.5 percent and Germany's DAX fell 0.6 percent to its lowest since January, putting it down more than 6 percent so far this month. Britain's FTSE 100 share index fell 0.5 percent to 6,375 points.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.6 percent to a two-year low, marking the fifth consecutive day of losses in what is its longest losing streak this year. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.9 percent. Shanghai Composite Index closed down 3.4 pct at 3,664.29 points, while China's CSI300 Index ended 3.2 pct at 3,761.45 points.
Commodities Recap
U.S. crude oil prices fell to almost $40 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest since the global financial crisis of 2009, as supplies rose in North America and the Middle East, filling stockpiles to record levels. U.S. crude oil, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, was down 45 cents at $40.35 a barrel by 0910 GMT, after hitting a new 6-1/2-year low of $40.23. Brent crude futures were down 60 cents at $46.56 a barrel, still some way off their 2015 low of $45.19 traded in January.
Gold hit its highest in nearly five weeks on Thursday after meeting minutes from the U.S. Fed suggested policymakers were in no hurry to raise interest rates. Spot gold hit a high of $1,141.75 an ounce, its highest since July 17, and was up 0.4 percent at $1,138.50 as of 0951 GMT. U.S. gold for December delivery was up 0.9 percent to$1,137.90 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yielded 2.11 percent, having declined from an eight-month high of 2.50 percent in June. German 10-year yields fell 5 basis points in early trading to touch 0.59 percent.
UK Gilts opened a whopping 56 ticks higher than the settlement of 117.69 as dealers reacted the rather dovish tone to the leaked FOMC minutes. Early buyers on 10-year cash took out Monday's support at 1.816% and are now probing Tuesday's low at 1.793%.
JGB prices ended the day higher, with the 5s/30s curve flattening by 2bp on the day in thin trading. Firmer US TSY overnight and weaker Tokyo stocks dampened JGB sentiment, sending JGB yields lower to their 3- to 4-month lows in very thin trading. Yields on the current 5-yr, 10-yr, 20-yr, and 30-yr JGBs ended at their intraday lows of 0.07% (lowest since Apr 28), 0.355% (the lowest since May1), 0.13% (the lowest since May 18), and 1.375% (the lowest since May 1), respectively.
New Zealand government bond yields were as much as 4.5 basis points lower at the long end of the curve. A bounce in U.S. Treasury bonds underpinned Australian government bond futures. The 3-year bond contract rose 6 ticks to 98.120, while the 10-year contract added 7 ticks to 97.3000.
