Market Roundup
• UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Sep): 4.3%, 3.9% forecast, 3.9% previous
• UK Claimant Count Change (Oct): 26.7K, 30.5K forecast, 10.1K previous
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep): 219K, 373K previous
• UK Unemployment Rate (Sep): 4.3%, 4.1% forecast, 4.0% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Oct): 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 1.8% previous
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Nov): -91.4, -86.0 forecast, -86.9 previous
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov): 7.4, 13.2 forecast, 13.1 previous
• EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov): 12.5, 20.5 forecast, 20.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Sep): 2.9% forecast, -7.0% previous
•13:55 USD Redbook (YoY): 6.0% previous
•14:00 EUR French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.647% previous
•14:00 EUR French 3-Month BTF Auction: 3.085% previous
•14:00 EUR French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.892% previous
•15:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Nov): 47.3 forecast, 46.9 previous
•16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Oct): 3.0% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.440% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.260% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:15 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•19:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the dollar on Tuesday, amid concerns that U.S. policies, including tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump, could pose risks to growth in the eurozone. The euro is also facing additional pressure from political uncertainty in Germany, the bloc's largest economy. On Monday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition partner, the Greens, joined opposition calls for an earlier parliamentary vote, potentially paving the way for a snap election. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers rose 0.34% to 105.78, around its highest since early July.The euro sank to $1.0612 on Tuesday, the lowest since late April. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0732(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0761(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0611`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0583(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling hit three month low on Tuesday after data showed regular wage growth cooled and unemployment ticked up. British wage growth excluding bonuses dropped to its lowest level in over two years in the third quarter, according to official data released on Tuesday. This could strengthen the Bank of England’s confidence that inflationary pressures will continue to ease.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose 4.8% in the three months to September compared to the same period a year earlier, down from 4.9% in August and nearly 8% a year ago, the Office for National Statistics reported. The third-quarter figure represents the weakest reading since the June 2022 quarter. Sterling fell as much as 0.5% to $1.2802, its lowest since Aug. 15. It was last down 0.44% at $1.2814.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2877(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2910(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2798 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2773 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as disappointment over China's recent policy package, announced on Friday, and President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose 60% tariffs on China continued to weigh on the Australian currency. Trump's proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as potentially conflicting with the U.S. Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation. With the Republican Party likely controlling both houses of Congress when Trump takes office in January, expansive fiscal policies are expected, which could limit the scope for future rate cuts by the Fed and further strengthen the U.S. dollar. At GMT 12:08, the Australian dollar was down 0.48 % at 0.6541 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6682(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6540 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6520(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as the greenback gained ground, with investors awaiting clues on how Donald Trump will implement his policy agenda in the U.S. Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. These proposed tariffs, along with other policies like tax cuts, are expected to be inflationary and likely to keep U.S. interest rates elevated, which could put pressure on the currencies of trading partners. On the macroeconomic front, attention will turn to U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday, with several Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, set to speak later in the week. The dollar edged up about 0.15% to 154.11 yen. The Japanese currency dropped to a three-month low of 154.715 per dollar last week.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.19(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.08(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.21(Nov 8th low) a break below could take the pair towards 151.32(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Tuesday, with China-exposed stocks among the biggest decliners amid concerns that Donald Trump is likely to appoint a China hawk as the top U.S. diplomat. The losses were further exacerbated by disappointing earnings reports.
At (GMT 12:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.99 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell 1% to their lowest levels in nearly two months on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar surged ahead of key economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, which could provide insights into the interest rate outlook under the Trump administration.
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $2,596.16 per ounce by 1057 GMT, after dropping 1% to hit its lowest since Sept. 20 at $2,589.59 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,602.40.
Oil prices were mostly flat on Tuesday, with traders waiting for direction from OPEC's monthly report. Investor disappointment over China’s latest stimulus package and concerns about oversupply kept gains in check.
Brent crude futures rose 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.21 a barrel, by 0944 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.5% at $68.40 a barrel.
