Market Roundup
•Greek Jun HICP (YoY) 2.5%, 2.4% previous
•Greek Jun Greek CPI (YoY) 2.3,2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:15 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•14:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testifies
•14:00 US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks
•17:30 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday as investors came to terms with a hung parliament in France, which points to a potential political gridlock, but lessens fiscal concerns stemming from outright far-right or leftist victories. The euro was trading lower at $1.0819, not far from Monday's nearly four-week peak of $1.0845. The single currency also dipped as low as $1.07915 the same day.Europe's single currency has bounced around in recent weeks due to uncertainty over French politics, which still remains even after Sunday's vote. The French left said on Monday that it wanted to run the government, but conceded that talks would be tough and take time. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0863 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0799 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0762 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed on Tuesday, down very slightly from Monday's one-month peak as investors weighed up new political landscapes in Britain and France.Sterling was unchanged from the previous day at $1.2804, down from Monday's one-month high of $1.2846, with traders also waiting for testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.The Labour party swept to power in a landslide in Thursday's election, promising stability after a volatile period that saw four Conservative Prime Ministers in five years.The pound is one of the best performing currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of England holding interest rates higher than expected at the start of the year as wage and services inflation has remained high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2822(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2852(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2754(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2693(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell days after an unexpectedly soft U.S. jobs report. Chair Powell is set to give two days of testimony before Congress, beginning later in the day, with the Senate and followed by the House on Wednesday.The consumer price index (CPI) data on Thursday could also be crucial, market watchers said, with recent numbers showing a cooling from unexpectedly high levels at the start of the year. For the remainder of 2024, markets have fully priced in a total 50 basis points of easing, equivalent to two rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9000(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9041(July 4h high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8961(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8932(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher on Tuesday as investors waited to see if U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would sound supportive of rate cuts after evidence the U.S. labour market is cooling. Powell is set to appear before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, in a hearing likely to take stock of whether recent signs of cooling inflation and a slowing job market will prompt the central bank to accelerate its plans to cut interest rates.Investors wagered that recent soft labour market data has boosted the chance of a rate cut in September to about 80%.The U.S. dollar steadied near four-week lows at 105.02 against a basket of currencies. The Japanese currency held at 160.87 per dollar, having plumbed a 38-year low of 161.96 per dollar last week. Strong resistance can be seen at 161.27(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.01 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.78(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Tuesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to gauge the likelihood of a rate cut in September, while Indivior sank to a three-year low after lowering its profit forecast.
At (GMT 12:22 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was by down 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices ticked higher on Tuesday, with investors awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the U.S. June inflation data for further cues on the likely direction of interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,363.69 per ounce as of 0944 GMT. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.3% to $2,370.80.
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after a hurricane that hit a key U.S. oil-producing hub in Texas caused less damage than markets had expected, easing concerns over supply disruption.
Brent futures fell 39 cents or 0.45% to $85.36 a barrel by 1111 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 44 cents or 0.53% to $81.89.
