Market Roundup
•Finnish Jan CPI (YoY) 3.3%,3.6% previous
•Sweden Jan CPI (YoY) 5.4%,5.1%forecast,4.4% previous
•Sweden Jan CPI (MoM) -0.1%, -0.4% forecast,0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jan RMPI (YoY) -7.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan IPPI (YoY) -2.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan RMPI (MoM) 0.7% forecast, -4.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan IPPI (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -1.5% previous
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.408% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.825% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.714% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Monday as uncertainties over monetary policy outlooks from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England kept investors cautious. Investor focus this week will be on the minutes of the Fed meeting from last month, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Several Fed officials including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are also due to speak this week. Traders have pushed back their expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut from March to June. Markets are currently pricing a 77% chance of a cut in June, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. The euro was unchanged at $1.0777, after falling to a three-month low of $1.0695 last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0803(Feb 12th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0848 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0771(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0705 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as investors awaited further impetus from survey data on Thursday. Thursday's release of the survey-based Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will provide insight into the economic health of the UK for the month of February. Investors currently expect around 70 basis points of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, down from around 110 at the start of February. They see a roughly 55% chance that the first BoE cut comes by June. Sterling was last up 0.12% at $1.2615 after slipping 0.25% last week. U.S. markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2631(Daily hiigh), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2659 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2567(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2497(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Monday as fading chances for early interest rate cuts globally soured the mood. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, started the week little changed at 104.20 after clocking five straight weeks of gains. The index is up 3% this year as traders adjust their rate cut expectations.Data last week showed both U.S. producer prices and consumer prices increased more than expected in January, with the apparent stickiness in inflation raising the prospects of a delayed start to the Fed's rate cuts.Traders are now betting that June would be the starting point of the easing cycle compared with March at the beginning of the year, CME FedWatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8846(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8874(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8793(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8749(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday a slight retreat in the U.S. dollar and increasing tensions in the Middle East supported Japanese Yen. Focus shifts to minutes from the Fed's January policy meeting, due on Wednesday, for more clues on when it could begin cutting interest rates.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against delaying rate cuts for too long even after data showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January.Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said that while he needs more data to convince him inflation pressures are truly falling, he's open to lowering rates at some point in the next few months. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.78 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 149.79(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 149.00(Psychological level )
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Monday, with French stocks taking a hit after the government cut its annual economic growth forecast, while shares of car parts maker Forvia rose following an upbeat outlook and on plans to trim its workforce.
At (GMT 13:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.28percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a near one-week high on Monday as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East lifted its safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,021.09 per ounce, as of 0335 GMT, hitting its highest since Feb. 13. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.4% to $2,032.40 per ounce.
Oil prices dipped on festering demand concerns and profit-taking prompted by last week's gains as conflict in the Middle East showed no signs of easing.
Brent crude futures were down 78 cents, or 0.9%, at $82.69 a barrel by 1030 GMT.
The March contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude , which expires on Tuesday, was down 33 cents, or 0.4%, at $78.86 in tepid trade.
