Market Roundup
•Spanish Trade Balance -0.71B ,-2.30B previous
•German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.831% ,3.192% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Months BTF Auction 3.053% previous
•13:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.553% previous
•13:00 French 6-Months BTF Auction 3.380% previous
•14:00 US Jul Leading Index (MoM) -0.4%forecast, -0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:15 Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as dollar dipped as investors focused on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole for hints on potential rate cuts. Markets are also anticipating the release of flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from France, Germany, Britain, and the Eurozone, along with U.S. PMI numbers and initial jobless claims data later this week. Powell's speech on Friday is expected to provide crucial insights into an imminent rate cut. Additionally, traders will be closely analyzing the minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting, set to be released on Wednesday. The market is currently anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with a 28.5% chance of a 50 bp move, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1049(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1072 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0985(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0929(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling reached a one-month high against the dollar on Monday, driven by increasing bets on U.S. interest rate cuts, which weakened the greenback against other major currencies. Investors are closely watching upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the central bankers' gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday for insights into future monetary policies in the U.S. and UK. The dollar dropped to a seven-month low against major currencies, influenced by expectations of a dovish shift in the Fed’s July meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, and Powell's forthcoming speech. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2982(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3011(JHIgher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2875(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2789(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors waited Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to headline the event when he delivers remarks on the first full day on Friday, and it will be a good chance for him to give an updated assessment of the monetary policy outlook, halfway between the July and September meetings.Futures are fully pricing a quarter-point rate cut next month, while a larger 50 basis point move is given almost a 30% chance. The size of the move will likely be determined by the evolution of data in the coming weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8678 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8753(Aug 15th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8631(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8509(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose higher high against the yen on Monday as traders braced for dovish signals from Federal Reserve meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting, due on Wednesday, and Powell's speech on Friday are likely to be the main currency drivers in a week. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the central bank's decision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar was about 0.9% lower at 146.32 , after earlier slipping below 146. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.28(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.23(Aug 15th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.33(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Monday as investors prepared for a data-heavy week, with a particular focus on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole for hints on potential rate cuts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.24 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.45 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices eased on Monday as concerns over demand in China, the world's top oil importer, dampened market sentiment.
Brent crude futures dropped 63 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.05 a barrel by 1129 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures slid 71 cents, or 0.9%, to $75.94.
Gold eased on Monday after surging to an all-time high above the key $2,500 per ounce mark in the previous session, driven by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of an imminent U.S. rate cut as investors await further clues on the extent of the cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,496.46 per ounce, as of 1011 GMT, just about $13 shy of the record high of $2,509.65 hit on Friday. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% lower to $2,534.80.
