Market Roundup
• German Composite PMI (Sep) 47.2, 48.2, 48.4 previous
• German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 40.3 ,42.4, 42.4 previous
• German Services PMI (Sep) 50.6 ,51.1, 51.2 previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 44.8 , 45.7, 45.8 previous
•EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 48.9 ,50.6, 51.0 previous
• EU Services PMI (Sep) 50.5, 52.3, 52.9 previous
• UK Composite PMI (Sep) 52.9, 53.8 previous
• UK Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.5 ,52.3, 52.5 previous
• UK Services PMI (Sep) 52.8, 53.5, 53.7 previous
•US Sep Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 47.0,48.6 forecast, 47.9 previous
•US Sep S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) 54.4,54.3 forecast, 54.6 previous
•US Sep Services PMI 55.4,55.3 forecast, 55.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 20:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Monday following disappointing business activity reports from the euro zone, contrasted with steady activity data from the U.S. This weak performance raised expectations for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with markets now pricing in about a 77% chance of at least a 25 basis point cut at the central bank's October meeting. According to a survey by S&P Global, euro zone business activity contracted significantly this month, with the services sector stagnating and a worsening decline in manufacturing. The downturn was widespread, with Germany seeing a more pronounced drop, while France slipped back into contraction after a temporary boost in August from the Olympic Games. Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1198 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1218 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1111 (38.2%fib), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1049(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Monday as sterling attracted sellers after downbeat UK PMI data. British businesses experienced a growth slowdown this month, with concerns about potential tax increases, according to a survey. The findings also indicated easing price pressures, which might prompt the Bank of England to consider another interest rate cut. The preliminary UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 52.9 from 53.8, falling short of all forecasts in a poll, yet remaining comfortably above the 50 mark that signifies growth over contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3331(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3361(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3269(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3196(38.2%fib%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against dollar on Monday bolstered by expectations of a hawkish policy decision on interest rates from RBA. Policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday where it is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.35% and again push back talk of rate cuts this year.A strong jobs report last week led investors to scale back the chance of a rate cut in December to just 64%, compared to 75% before the data. A day after the RBA meeting, inflation data for August is expected to show that headline inflation eased back to the target band of 2%-3%, driven by the government's electricity rebates, with economists expecting an annual rise of 2.7%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6820(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6847(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6761(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6707(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the yen on Monday, supported by momentum from the U.S. Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut and signals of more reductions ahead. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week and showed no urgency to hike, halting the yen's sharp gains this month. The yen is up 1.4% in September. With Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox Day, trade was mainly driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and the gains in equities, commodity currencies, and other risk assets. The dollar index =USD, which tracks its performance against a basket of currencies, including the yen and the euro, rose 0.04% to 100.82 after rising as high as 101.23 on the session. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.63 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.70(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 140.36(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Monday, buoyed by a soft business activity report that reinforced the case for additional monetary policy easing by the European Central Bank this year. Rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate and utilities, saw notable gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.58 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold reached an all-time high on Monday, fueled by positive market sentiment following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week, alongside rising geopolitical tensions. This surge occurred even amid a stronger dollar.
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $2,630.19 per ounce by 11:37 a.m. ET (1537 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $2,635.29 earlier in the session.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday as investors expressed concerns over supply due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the emergence of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, which disrupted some production.
Brent crude futures for November were up 51 cents, or 0.6%, to $75 a barrel by 10:21 a.m. ET (1421 GMT). U.S. crude futures for November were up 65 cents, or 0.9%, at $71.65.
