Market Roundup
•Italian Composite PMI (Oct) 51.0, 49.7 previous
•Italian Services PMI (Oct) 52.4, 50.3 forecast, 50.5 previous
•French S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 48.1, 47.3 forecast, 48.6 previous
•French Services PMI (Oct) 49.2, 48.3 forecast, 49.6 previous
•German Composite PMI (Oct) 48.6, 48.4 forecast, 47.5 previous
•German Services PMI (Oct) 51.6, 51.4 forecast, 50.6 previous
• EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 50.0, 49.7 forecast, 49.6 previous
• EU Services PMI (Oct) 51.6, 51.2 forecast, 51.4 previous
•UK Construction PMI (Oct) 54.3, 55.3 forecast, 57.2 previous
•German Car Registration (YoY) 6.0%, -7.0% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Sep) -3.4%, -3.5% forecast, -2.3% previous
• EU PPI (MoM) (Sep) -0.6%, -0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Oct) 54.5 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Oct) 54.2 forecast, 53.1 previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.300M forecast, -0.515M previous
•15:30 EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.031M previous
•15:30 Crude Oil Imports -0.605M previous
•15:30 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.681M previous
•15:30 Distillate Fuel Production -0.148M previous
•15:30 EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.500M forecast, -0.977M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.650M forecast, -2.707M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•18:30 Canada BOC Summaries of Deliberations
• 17:25 Canada BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined sharply against dollar on Wednesday as dollar rallied as Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. Trump recaptured the White House by securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. Trump has vowed to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and 60% duties on Chinese imports. In the run-up to the election, Trump said India charged high tariffs and that he would reciprocate if elected. The dollar index which measures the currency against six major peers including the euro and yen climbed 1.45% to 104.95.The euro dropped 1.54% to $1.0748. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0756(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0794(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0700(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0667 (June 26th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower against dollar on Wednesday as the U.S. currency soared after Donald Trump was elected president. The election result sent the dollar surging against a basket of currencies, including the pound, as Trump's expected expansionary fiscal policy and imposition of U.S. import tariffs are expected to drive inflation higher. The Republican Party also won control of the Senate and made gains in the House. A Red Sweep where the party controls the presidency, Senate and House would put the Republicans in a stronger position to dictate policy. Sterling was last down 1.2% against the dollar at $1.28955, its biggest one-day fall since March 2023.The dollar index , which measures the currency against six others including the pound, was up 1.6% at 104.97. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2903(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2952 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2856 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12803(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell sharply lower on Wednesday after Donald Trump was re-elected president. Trump's fiscal, tariff and immigration policies are seen as inflationary by analysts, buoying treasury yields and in turn the dollar. Republicans also won control of the Senate, and made gains in the House of Representatives as the party battled to retain control there, raising the potential for a so-called Red Sweep. The dollar index which measures the currency against six major peers advanced 1.7% to 105.16 as of 1130 GMT, a four-month peak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6582(SMA 9), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6656(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6560 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as the U.S. currency surged following Donald Trump's election victory. Investors reacted to the result with a rush into the dollar, fearing the economic implications of a Trump presidency and anticipating more volatility in global markets .U.S. budget deficits and government debt levels were largely projected to surge under either candidate in the election, according to several estimates, although Harris was expected to add less debt than Trump.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates reducing federal deficits, estimates Trump's spending plans would add $7.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.26(23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.76(5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 151.47(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares jumped more than 1% on Wednesday, tracking a rise in U.S. stock futures, as Donald Trump was elected U.S. president and Republicans took control of at least one chamber of Congress.
At (GMT 11:59),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.99 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.78 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a near three-week low on Wednesday with dollar holding strong as 'Trump trades' soared, while investors also kept a close tab on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold slipped 0.8% to $2,721.21 per ounce, as of 0923 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $2,790.15 last Thursday. U.S. gold futures lost 0.7% to $2,730.20.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday after Republican Donald Trump was elected president, pushing the dollar higher.
Brent crude oil futures were down $1.00, or 1.32%, at $74.53 per barrel by 1040 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 93 cents, or 1.29%, to $71.06 per barrel.
