BOJ Governor Ueda Highlights Uncertainty Over Future Interest Rate Hikes 
RBA Reassesses Pricing Behaviors and Policy Impact Amid Inflation Pressures 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
Kazakhstan Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 18% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Japan’s Inflation Edges Higher in October as BOJ Faces Growing Pressure to Hike Rates 
BOJ Seen Moving Toward December Rate Hike as Yen Slides 
Indonesia Aims to Strengthen Rupiah as Central Bank Targets 16,400–16,500 Level 
Fed Officials Split as Powell Weighs December Interest Rate Cut 
BOK Expected to Hold Rates at 2.50% as Housing and Currency Pressures Persist 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 1st April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 5.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 94.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 15 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 85 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 21.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 78.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 40 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 60 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 45.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 54.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 2.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 14.8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 42 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased further while the Federal Reserve forecasted no further rate hike in 2019.
- However, the market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 58 percent probability, compared to 54.6 percent last week, and 26.4 percent in the week before that.
