BOJ Signals Faster Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Raise September Move Odds 
Japan Executives Warn Weak Yen and Currency Volatility Threaten Economy 
Canada, US Hold Constructive Trade Talks as Tariff Negotiations Continue 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Australia Inflation Cools as Core CPI Misses Forecasts, Easing RBA Rate Hike Pressure 
Gold Prices Surge 7% as Dollar Falls, Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease 
Oil Prices Rise as Hormuz Reopening Remains Uncertain 
US Dollar Gains as Iran Tensions, Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
ECB Expected to Hold Rates as Middle East Tensions Keep September Hike in Focus 
Goldman Sachs Sees US Stock Buybacks Outpacing Equity Issuance as AI Funding Rises 
As we head into 2019, the United States and its economy facing several key risks after a turbulent stock market in 2018. Let’s take a look at those key factors,
- One of the most important risks facing the USA is an economic slowdown. There have been signs since the end of the third quarter that after a stellar performance in 2017, and 2018, the U.S. may finally be losing some steam. So, the focus would be on whether the economy continues to grow stronger or slowdown accelerates. The outcome of this uncertainty would certainly influence USD the most, as the market is no longer pricing a hike single rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2019. The economy would also impact stock prices via earnings.
- Another set of key risks specific to the United States is the domestic political turmoil. With the House of Representatives under control, the Democrats are likely to increase political attacks on president Trump as the Presidential campaign would gradually kick in. The U.S. economy is likely to face several prolonged shutdowns over the differences between the Democrats and President Trump. The current ongoing partial shutdown speaks for it, which is likely to last longer than previous shutdowns.
- The United States is also facing several geopolitical risks, and one needs to keep an eye on them; relations with Middle East after troops withdrawal from Syria, and Khashoggi murder allegedly involving Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman; relationship with European Union over NATO payments and trade; relationship with China as the trade war intensifies.
The outcome of the above uncertainties would not only continue to influence the market but their outcome would be major movers.
