Wall Street Mixed as Treasury Yields Rise After Fed Hike 
BOJ Set for Rate Hike as Inflation and Yen Pressure Mount 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Supertanker Orders Surge as US-Iran War Reshapes Oil Trade 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
East Germany Narrows Economic Gap With West but Wealth Divide Persists 
Gold Prices Rise as Oil and Treasury Yields Fall 
Oil Prices Fall as Saudi Supply Concerns Ease 
Mexico Pushes for US Trade Deal Before Midterms 
S&P 500 Relies on Tech for Growth in Q4 2024, Says Barclays 
US Stock Futures Rally as Markets Digest Fed Rate Hike 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Add as a preferred source on Google
We’ve already advocated initiating or those who hold longs stay firm with conviction in USDTWD 3m NDFs.
Below are the weblinks for our recent write up on USDTWD longs:
We went long ever since Taiwanese currency seemed rate sensitive and Chinese growth turned into negative, the above mentioned articles are the evidences. We still maintain long portfolios in USDTWD 3m NDF at 32.03 with a target at 33.7 (+5.2%) and a stop at 31.4 (-2.0%).
The stop is placed below the 100DMA (31.63) and below trend line support from the September lows. The trade horizon is three months and positive carry is modest (+2bp/month).
We re-enter the position given -
EM currencies should come under further downward pressure through Q1,
Negative forward points offer modest positive carry,
Possibility of heightened risk premium related to US politics (protectionism and geopolitical concerns),
The currency is lagging the move in rate differentials, and
Chinese growth expected to slower even in H1 2017 and ongoing RMB depreciation.
Risk profiling: A reversal in the dollar trend, optimism developing regarding Chinese growth, and diminished RMB depreciation risks.
