Europe Heatwave Creates Growth Opportunity for Carrier, Trane, and Johnson Controls, Citi Says 
Gold's 365-Day EMA Streak Since Oct 2023 Faces Its First Real Test at $3,980 — Break or Bounce to $4,140? 
Should I take zinc or eat oysters to ward off colds, boost my immune system or improve fertility? 
Bank Regulation Rollbacks in the U.S. and UK Could Increase Financial Risks, Study Warns 
Despite its best efforts, Iran won’t be able to toll the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s why 
Sell the Bounce": Gold Rally Stalls Near $4165 as Fed Hawks Slam the Door on Rate Cuts — Targets $4000/$3600 
How AI prompting turned writerly description into an everyday skill 
Silver Cracks Key 365-Day EMA for First Time Since Feb 2024; Bears Eye $50 on Rallies 
Part II — The listing: NFTs as bottle-stamps, and a vault the family is in no rush to sell 
Gold Surges Above Key EMAs, Bulls Eye Resistance Amidst Bullish Momentum 
NZD continues to trade well – in trade-weighted terms, it is at a 6m high. RBNZ has been puzzling in recent monetary policies.
The central bank may have cut rates early in December but it had also hinted the easing cycle might be over and that turned what ordinarily would be a currency negative event.
However, The central bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 2.25% at its March 2016 meeting.
It is the first cut this year, citing many risks to the outlook, including uncertainties over global growth, particularly around China, the outlook for global financial markets, weakness in the dairy sector, the decline in inflation expectations, the possibility of continued high net immigration, and pressures in the housing market.
Market pricing for the OCR low has shifted slightly lower, from 1.89% to 1.84% currently. That implies the market sees a 56% chance the OCR will fall below 2.0% to 1.75% this year.
The recent rise in the NZD has certainly been one catalyst for the repricing. Regarding the probabilities of a rate cut this month (on the 28th), it has increased from 30% to 40%.
As a result, Swap Yield outlook for 1 week has changed: We see the 2yr sitting in a 2.10%-2.20% range until the Q1 CPI release on 18 April.
But, excluding a surprising shocks from that release, we look forward to the 2yr to then remain in the range until the 28 April RBNZ OCR Review.
The prospects of RBNZ's cut seem more likely than standing pat on it when evaluating these yield curves, but we anticipate no surprises even if the CB remains unchanged as well on the other hand.
Elsewhere, in U.S. the payer spreads at the front end of the curve make some sense, given the post-FOMC bull steepening of the curve.
One can finance the payer spread in the front end by selling a payer in the belly (in the process effectively creating a bearish flattener).
We recommend long 6m2y a/a+15bp payer spread financed by selling a 6m10y payer (a revised +25 bps indicative).
