U.S. Dollar Steadies Near October Lows as Rate Cut Expectations Keep Markets on Edge 
RBA Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates in 2026 as Inflation Pressures Persist, Says Westpac 
Asian Markets Rebound as Tech Rally Lifts Wall Street, Investors Brace for BOJ Rate Hike 
U.S. Stocks End Week Higher as Tech Rally Offsets Consumer Weakness 
Canada Signals Delay in US Tariff Deal as Talks Shift to USMCA Review 
Oil Prices Steady in Asia but Headed for Weekly Loss on Supply Glut Concerns 
EU Delays Mercosur Free Trade Agreement Signing Amid Ukraine War Funding Talks 
Asian Stocks Slide as AI Spending Fears and Global Central Bank Decisions Weigh on Markets 
BoE Set to Cut Rates as UK Inflation Slows, but Further Easing Likely Limited 
Chinese Robotaxi Stocks Rally as Tesla Boosts Autonomous Driving Optimism 
Austan Goolsbee Signals Potential for More Fed Rate Cuts as Inflation Shows Improvement 
Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Oil Tankers, Raising Venezuela Tensions and Oil Prices 
New Zealand Business Confidence Hits 30-Year High as Economic Outlook Improves 
Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Strengthens; Indian Rupee Rebounds on Intervention Hopes 
U.S. Stock Futures Slip After CPI-Fueled Rally as Markets Weigh Economic Uncertainty 
Gold and Silver Surge as Safe Haven Demand Rises on U.S. Economic Uncertainty 
Singapore Growth Outlook Brightens for 2025 as Economists Flag AI and Geopolitical Risks 
The strategy for trading EMFX encompasses a mixed bag. It is generally pro-risk through exposure to high yielders but with a modest long dollar bias by shorting low yielders that offer little value either from a carry or fundamental perspective (complete list of trade ideas in Trade Monitor). This balanced approach remains prudent.
China: January FX reserves fell a touch below US$3 trillion. China’s FX reserves declined by US$12.3 billion in January to$2.998 trillion, a touch below the psychologically sensitive US$3 trillion threshold to mark the lowest level since February 2011, down from aUS$3.993 trillion peak in June 2014.
While January trade report points to benign near-term exports trend.
Taiwan trade activity eased in January, partly on seasonal factors.
Risk on price action in EM FX overnight; for now (and absent a catalyst), it is hard to fight the trend, especially in high yielding space. It seems like any risk premium related to Trump is evaporating and there is no longer any concern about the Fed, Chinese growth, or CNY.
Reduction in risk premium is being supported by improving fundamentals – growth dynamics improving across an EM aggregate and return on assets perking up from the mid-2016 low.
While South Korean Housing market indicators softened.
Household lending likely accelerated further in Q4’16.
Next week: Trade prices and unemployment rate.
Trade recommendations:
The long dollar risk is selective and focused on low yielders (except CNH) and mostly via options.
Long USDKRW via 1x2 call spread: Good entry point with 61.8% retracement level from the September low to December high coming in around 1136. 1x2 structure improves max leverage to 9 times from 3 times in a 1x1.
Long USDSGD: via a one-touch: Worried about French elections and EUR parity? SGD 3m implied vol about 40% cheaper than EUR vol.
Long USDCNH via a 1yr seagull: Expensive to bet against the CNH. Seagull provides upside exposure that is cheapened significantly by selling expensive 1-year vol.
Long USDTWD: Tactical position to fade YTD strength in TWD; could face more formidable support above the May 2015 low (30.39).
