Global Markets Sink as Mixed U.S. Jobs Data Rekindles Rate-Cut Uncertainty

Asian stocks extended their sharp declines on Friday as investors reacted to U.S. labor data that offered little clarity on the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Despite initially positive sentiment driven by Nvidia’s strong earnings, the rally quickly faded and risk-off sentiment returned across global markets.

Japan’s Nikkei index slid 2%, Australia’s resource-heavy shares dropped 1.4%, and South Korea’s market plunged nearly 4% as traders reassessed expectations for U.S. monetary policy. The renewed volatility followed a turbulent session on Wall Street, where concerns over stretched tech valuations resurfaced. The Nasdaq posted its widest intraday swing since April 9, a period marked by heightened uncertainty after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs rattled investors.

U.S. payrolls data showed stronger-than-expected job creation in September, yet the uptick in the unemployment rate and downward revisions from previous months fueled uncertainty about the underlying health of the labor market. Traders slightly increased their bets on a December rate cut—now seen at a 40% probability—but the mixed data failed to offer the definitive signal markets were hoping for.

Analysts note that despite upbeat earnings and relatively solid job numbers, market momentum remains weak. Capital.com’s senior analyst Kyle Rodda said that even with positive catalysts, sentiment has not shifted enough to overcome prevailing bearishness.

Federal Reserve officials have also expressed growing anxiety over financial stability risks, including the potential for sharp drops in asset prices should policy easing resume too quickly. Comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted concerns about the broader implications of cutting rates too soon.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened against commodity-linked currencies and held firm near a 10-month peak against the yen. Japan’s 3% core inflation growth kept rate-hike expectations alive, though anticipated stimulus from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new government—expected to exceed 20 trillion yen—has kept downward pressure on the yen.

Treasury yields eased as investors positioned for possible Fed action next month, while oil prices retreated and gold remained stable.