India’s Exports to the U.S. Drop as Tariff Pressures Rise, but Trade Diversifies

India’s exports to the United States fell sharply in September, declining 12% year-on-year as higher U.S. tariffs took effect, according to new research from BofA Securities. The drop reflects the impact of additional levies imposed earlier this year by President Donald Trump, who sought to pressure New Delhi over its ongoing purchases of Russian oil.

The White House raised tariff rates on a wide range of Indian goods to about 50%, arguing the move was necessary to correct what it sees as long-standing imbalances caused by India’s high import duties on American products. The increased tariffs have weighed heavily on several key export sectors, including textiles, gems, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals—areas that BofA analysts described as showing “broad-based weakness” in September, the first full month under the new tariff regime.

Despite the setback in the U.S. market, India has been able to pivot to other trading partners. The data highlights a diversification toward destinations such as Hong Kong, Bangladesh, and the United Arab Emirates, helping soften the blow to the broader Indian economy. Analysts Rahul Bajoria and Smriti Mehra noted that the overall economic impact has so far remained “limited,” adding that India’s macro outlook remains stable even with ongoing trade tensions.

In recent weeks, Trump has moderated his stance, indicating that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has signaled a willingness to reduce Russian crude imports. The U.S. president also hinted that tariffs could eventually be lowered, suggesting the possibility of a mutually beneficial agreement. Indian officials, according to Bloomberg News, are cautiously optimistic, pointing to constructive progress in ongoing negotiations.

While the timing of any resolution remains uncertain, both governments appear interested in finding common ground. For now, India continues navigating shifting trade dynamics while waiting for a clearer path forward on the tariff front.