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India's Inflation Reaches 5.81% in October
India's consumer price inflation surged to 5.81% in October, marking the highest rate in 14 months. The rise is mainly attributed to higher food prices, particularly tomatoes and edible oils. Food accounts for nearly half of the inflation basket, and a sharp increase in vegetable costs, due to uneven rainfall affecting production, was a major contributor.
Impact of Edible Oil and Tomato Prices
Tomatoes, a staple in Indian kitchens, saw a price hike due to disrupted production caused by unseasonal rains. Additionally, the government's decision to increase import taxes on edible oils by 20 percentage points in September intensified price pressures. These factors, combined with global inflationary trends, further strained household budgets.
Rising Inflation and Core Inflation Insights
According to a Reuters poll, the annual retail inflation in India is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with a range from 5.00% to 6.30%. Core inflation, excluding volatile items like food and energy, was projected at 3.60%, reflecting strong domestic demand, partly driven by festive spending and rising gold prices.
Outlook on Inflation and RBI's Response
Economists warn that inflation may remain elevated due to ongoing climate risks, a weaker rupee, and geopolitical factors. While some analysts anticipate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce interest rates in December, a return to the 4% medium-term target is unlikely until 2026, suggesting that rate cuts might be delayed into early next year.
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