Oil Prices Hit Four-Month High as Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions Intensify

Oil prices climbed to a four-month high during Asian trading on Thursday, extending recent gains as heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran prompted traders to price in a higher risk premium. The rally was further supported by ongoing supply disruptions in the U.S. caused by extreme winter weather, alongside continued weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Brent crude futures for March delivery rose 0.8% to $68.96 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.9% to $63.75 per barrel. The weaker dollar, which tends to make commodities priced in dollars more attractive to international buyers, added to the upward momentum after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as markets had widely anticipated.

Investor focus remained firmly on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Reports indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering further military actions against Iran, including possible strikes targeting senior leadership and nuclear facilities. Earlier comments from Trump urging Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and reengage diplomatically were met with firm rejection from Tehran, which also warned of potential retaliation. The recent arrival of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East, along with claims that additional forces are en route, has fueled concerns over possible disruptions to Iranian oil production, a key factor driving crude prices higher.

At the same time, severe winter storms across large parts of the United States have significantly disrupted domestic oil supply. Sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall forced the shutdown of roughly 2 million barrels per day of crude production over the past week. Exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast were also affected, tightening overall supply conditions.

These disruptions were reflected in U.S. inventory data, which showed a sharp and unexpected decline. Government figures revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.295 million barrels in the week ending January 23, far exceeding market expectations for a modest 0.2 million barrel draw. Together, geopolitical uncertainty, weather-driven supply constraints, and supportive macroeconomic factors have combined to push oil prices to their highest levels in months, keeping markets on edge.