Oil Prices Rebound Amid Global Recession Fears and U.S.-China Trade Tensions

Oil prices rose over 1% on Tuesday, bouncing back from recent steep losses as investors reacted to ongoing trade tensions and recession concerns. Brent crude futures climbed 81 cents, or 1.26%, to $65.02 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 92 cents, or 1.52%, reaching $61.61 as of 0051 GMT.

The rebound followed a 2% slide on Monday, when oil prices neared a four-year low due to fears that U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff strategy could stall global economic growth and reduce energy demand. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on all U.S. imports, with some reaching up to 50%, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing and counter decades of trade liberalization.

In response, several nations, including China—the world’s second-largest economy—are implementing retaliatory tariffs. Trump warned of further duties if China maintains its countermeasures. Analysts like Tony Sycamore from IG note that if U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports climb to a projected 104%, global markets could face a sharp downturn, amplifying recession risks.

Adding to concerns, a Reuters poll suggested U.S. crude and distillate inventories likely rose by 1.6 million barrels last week, signaling tepid demand. Still, analysts see a potential price floor. With U.S. oil production break-even costs around $60 per barrel, sustained low prices may lead to reduced drilling and investment. According to Eurasia Group, if prices stay low, output could drop from the current 13.4 million barrels per day, supporting a WTI floor in the $50 range.

The oil market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic outlooks, with traders closely watching U.S.-China relations and global demand indicators.