Oil Prices Rise as Ukraine Targets Russian Energy Infrastructure

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as renewed Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil network signaled possible supply disruptions, while stalled peace negotiations dampened hopes of a swift resolution that could restore Russian crude to global markets. Brent crude climbed 24 cents to $62.91 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 29 cents to $59.24 during early Asian trading.

The latest attack hit the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region—its fifth strike—raising concerns about potential bottlenecks in crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia. Although operators reported no immediate interruption, analysts say repeated drone strikes are placing consistent pressure on Russia’s refining capabilities. According to commodity consultancy Kpler, Ukraine’s drone campaign has evolved into a more “sustained and strategically coordinated” effort aimed at preventing refineries from stabilizing operations. As a result, Russian refining throughput has slipped to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, a year-on-year decline of roughly 335,000 bpd. Gasoline output has been hit hardest, with gasoil production also noticeably lower.

Market sentiment also shifted as peace talks between U.S. President Donald Trump’s representatives and the Kremlin ended without concrete progress. With no clear path forward, expectations that Russian oil could soon re-enter an already oversupplied market have eased, providing marginal support for prices. Still, analysts caution that crude may continue to trade within a tight range as diplomatic efforts unfold. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted that the market is likely to remain cautious while negotiations stagnate.

Adding to the pressure, Fitch Ratings revised down its 2025-2027 oil price forecasts, citing persistent oversupply and production growth expected to outpace demand. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, underlying fundamentals remain weak, limiting any significant upward momentum in crude prices.