Oil Prices Slip to Three-Week Low Amid OPEC+ Surplus Forecast for 2026

Oil prices fell to a three-week low in Asian trade on Thursday, extending recent losses as concerns over a potential global supply glut grew following OPEC+’s revised forecast of a surplus in 2026. The dip also came as a stronger U.S. dollar and muted optimism over the end of the U.S. government shutdown weighed on crude markets.

Brent crude futures for January dropped 0.3% to $62.54 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped 0.3% to $58.31 per barrel by 20:37 ET (01:37 GMT). Both benchmarks recorded sharp declines of around 3.5% to 4% in the previous session.

OPEC’s latest monthly report revealed that the organization now expects a small surplus in oil supply by 2026, driven by higher production from both OPEC members and non-OPEC producers. The group also revised down its global demand forecast for the same year to 43 million barrels per day (bpd), implying a modest oversupply of around 20,000 bpd if current production levels persist. This outlook aligns OPEC more closely with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has projected a larger surplus. The IEA is expected to release its monthly oil market report later Thursday.

Despite OPEC’s plans to halt further production increases in the first quarter of 2026, its steady output growth throughout this year has heightened market fears of oversupply. Traders now worry that rising inventories could pressure prices further into next year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill ending the country’s longest-ever government shutdown, with President Donald Trump expected to sign it into law. The move provides some relief for fuel demand concerns, as government operations resume and key economic data releases restart, offering renewed clarity for the world’s largest oil consumer.