Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Fed Rate Cut and Russian Supply Risks

Oil prices remained steady in early Asian trading on Wednesday after a sharp rise in the previous session, driven by escalating concerns over Russian supply disruptions and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut. Brent crude futures dipped 1 cent to $68.46 a barrel at 0114 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 1 cent to $64.51.

The slight pullback follows Tuesday’s gains of more than 1%, sparked by drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries. According to industry sources, Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers about possible output cuts as Ukraine’s strikes threaten critical infrastructure. The European Commission also signaled plans to accelerate the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports, further tightening supply outlooks.

On the monetary policy front, traders await the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, where a 25-basis point interest rate cut is widely expected. Analysts suggest market focus will be on whether dissenters push for a deeper 50-basis point cut and the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. Additional rate cuts later this year remain a possibility, which could stimulate economic growth and boost energy demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data added support to prices. The American Petroleum Institute reported crude stocks fell by 3.42 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories declined by 691,000 barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 1.91 million barrels. A Reuters poll projects a smaller 900,000-barrel drop in crude stocks, alongside modest increases in gasoline and distillate inventories. The official U.S. Energy Information Administration data, due Wednesday, will be closely monitored for confirmation.

With geopolitical risks mounting and the Fed’s policy shift imminent, crude oil markets remain highly sensitive to both supply disruptions and economic signals, keeping volatility elevated.