US-Iran Ceasefire Under Pressure as Fresh Strait of Hormuz Clashes Shake Oil Markets 
Wall Street Futures Slip After Record Rally Fueled by Iran Peace Hopes and AMD Surge 
Asian Stocks Slide as Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Strong Weekly Gains 
Italy Services PMI Nears Stabilization as Middle East Tensions Push Costs Higher 
Asian Currencies Slip as US Dollar Gains on Rising Iran Tensions and Awaited Jobs Data 
Australia Posts Surprise Trade Deficit as Imports Surge on AI Equipment Demand 
China Banks Halt New Loans to Sanctioned Refineries Amid U.S.-Iran Oil Crackdown 
Japan Tech Stocks Surge as AI Optimism Lifts SoftBank, Chipmakers 
Trump-Xi Meeting 2026: U.S.-China Trade Tensions Escalate Ahead of Beijing Summit 
China EV Truck Boom Accelerates as Iran War Drives Diesel Prices Higher 
Gold Prices Rise as Weaker Dollar and U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes Boost Demand 
Lula and Trump Talks Signal New Phase in Brazil-US Relations 
Oil Prices Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Threatens Strait of Hormuz Supply Route 
US Trade Court Blocks Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs 
Trump Signals Possible U.S.-Iran Peace Deal as Markets Rally on Hopes of War Ending 
Gold Prices Hold Firm as Iran Tensions and Dollar Swings Drive Safe-Haven Demand 
European Stocks Edge Higher as Iran-U.S. Peace Talks Boost Market Sentiment 
The recent weakness in the U.S. dollar is expected to be unwarranted, considering the gap that has opened up with relative interest rates. The U.S. dollar’s long positioning has moderated significantly and now stands at just +1 on our +/- 50 BNP Paribas Positioning scale, the lowest level since the US election, reported BNP Paribas in its research note.
Moreover, upbeat United States economic data and upside inflation expectations hinted that markets are under-pricing the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes for 2017 and 2018.
“We, therefore, think this is an opportune time to reload USD long exposure. We keep USD longs via options, against the JPY, EUR & CAD,” suggested BNP Paribas in its note.
The BNP Paribas Bank in its research note mentioned that the risk to the bullish U.S. dollar view likely surrounds the unpredictability of the new US President. It may take time for Trump and Congressional Republicans to agree on tax plans. Furthermore, consumers and businesses may be more optimistic, but are choosing to wait to see how policy plays out before committing actual money.
Lastly, the BNP Paribas Bank concluded that it believe these risks are balanced by the light USD positioning, strong economic fundamentals and near-term USD undervaluation.
