The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) remained on hold at the monetary policy meeting held Thursday, underlining weak domestic currency amid heightened risks from global uncertainty. Also, inflation remained below the central bank’s target range, compelling it to further not raise interest rates.
The six-member monetary policy committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Lesetja Kganyago, unanimously decided to take the neutral move; also, it did not discuss a rate cut move, nor did any of the members urge for a hike in the meeting. The MPC has remained on hold since the since March after raising it by 200 basis points since 2014 in a bid to limit price growth to between 3 percent and 6 percent.
Despite inflation picking up to an 8-month high to 6.4 percent in October, it is estimated to slow with the central bank’s target band of 3-6 percent by the second quarter of 2017. The MPC forecasts inflation will peak at an average of 6.6 percent this quarter and slow to 5.8 percent next year and 5.5 percent in 2018.
Moreover, the rand dropped to its lowest level, following news of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election, on risks of a rise in government expenditure that could instigate a series of US interest rate hikes, posing serious downside risks to the import-dependent South African economy.
However, the SARB kept its economic growth forecast for the year unchanged at 0.4 percent. Output will expand at 1.2 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent the year after, according to the MPC. Also, the rand will follow a volatile nature, in relation to the Federal Reserve decision in December. Although markets have fully priced in for a rate hike next month, uncertainties still prevail for South Africa.
Meanwhile, Moody’s has rated South Africa’s foreign-currency debt at two levels above junk, with a negative outlook, while S&P Global Ratings is yet to publish it outlook on December 2, but possesses a similar view with the lowest investment-grade level.


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