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The headline non-oil domestic exports figure for April is likely to register a robust expansion of 14.8 percent y/y. While this is a moderation from the average pace of about 19 percent in February-March period, it is a more accurate reflection of the fundamental demand. That is, the strong numbers over the past two months were partly inflated by the base effect.
In addition, export demand may also be peaking. Latest PMIs for April saw the overall manufacturing PMI eased by 0.1 point to 51.1 while the electronics PMI also dipped a tad to 51.6, from 51.8 previously. While the declines are marginal, the sub-indexes may be suggesting that the pace of expansion in manufacturing activities could be nearing the peak, DBS Bank reported.
Electronics exports will remain the key driver but pharmaceuticals could provide additional upsides given that the industry had gone into an industry specific down-cycle in January-February, and is expected to return to the full capacity level in April. Overall, April’s NODX is the first set of figures for Q2 2017 and it could well provide a glimpse of what lies ahead for the economy.
