South Korea’s June Exports Rebound on Chip Demand Amid U.S. Tariff Uncertainty

South Korea’s exports likely rebounded in June, driven by surging semiconductor and auto demand, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The recovery follows a 1.3% decline in May, which had ended a four-month growth streak.

Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are estimated to have increased 4.7% year-on-year in June, based on the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed between June 23–26. Strong global tech demand, particularly for semiconductors, is seen as the main driver.

Data from the first 20 days of June showed an 8.3% rise in exports, fueled by a 21.8% jump in semiconductor shipments and a 9.2% increase in car exports. While exports to the U.S. grew, shipments to China continued to decline, highlighting ongoing regional trade imbalances.

Chun Kyu-yeon of Hana Securities said robust chip sales are powering the rebound. However, economists caution that uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs could weigh on future trade momentum. South Korea is seeking exemptions from U.S. tariffs on steel, autos, and a proposed 25% reciprocal levy, currently paused amid negotiations.

South Korea’s chief trade envoy met U.S. officials this week ahead of the July 8 deadline to finalize tariff talks. Despite reassurances, analysts like Stephen Lee of Meritz Securities warn that export momentum in Q3 may remain weak outside the semiconductor sector.

Imports in June are projected to have risen 6.9%, reversing May’s 5.3% drop, marking the fastest growth since July 2024. The Bank of Korea expects potential impacts from U.S. tariffs on steel, autos, and chips to start materializing in the third quarter.

South Korea will release official June trade data on July 1 at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).