Tesla Q2 Deliveries Beat Forecasts, But Deutsche Bank Warns on 2025 Outlook

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) delivered 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, surpassing Deutsche Bank’s expectations, driven by strong U.S. and international sales. While deliveries were down 13% year-over-year, they rose 14% from Q1. Deutsche Bank now projects Q2 revenue at $22.2 billion, supported by a favorable Model Y mix that boosted average selling prices by 4%.

Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits is tracking at 14%, up from 12.5% in Q1. Despite these improvements, Deutsche Bank remains cautious for the remainder of 2025, forecasting 1.58 million vehicle deliveries—below the 1.62 million consensus. The uncertainty around the Model Q launch, heightened competition in China, and new rivals like Xiaomi’s YU7 weigh on their outlook.

The analysts slightly raised their full-year auto gross margin forecast (excluding credits) to 13.8%, helped by milder-than-feared U.S. tariffs. Still, competition in China, especially with upcoming Model Y L and Model 3+ variants, presents risks to margins and volume growth.

However, Deutsche Bank continues to emphasize Tesla’s long-term value in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics. The firm sees these areas as Tesla’s future growth engines. The pilot robotaxi fleet launched in Austin with a geofenced Model Y program is set to expand rapidly, potentially reaching 1,000 vehicles within 6–9 months and expanding to San Francisco, Phoenix, and Miami.

Analysts believe Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap will mirror early Waymo strategies, focusing on geographic expansion and fleet growth. With expectations for improved operational efficiency and safety data by year-end, Tesla’s autonomous ambitions remain a key driver of long-term investor confidence.