Thailand’s Exports Surge 19% in September, Beating Forecasts with Strong U.S. Demand

Thailand’s exports surged 19% year-on-year in September 2025, marking the fastest growth in more than three years and surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 7% rise, according to the commerce ministry. This robust performance was largely driven by a sharp increase in shipments to the United States and an improved global trade environment following easing U.S. trade measures.

Exports to the U.S., Thailand’s largest market, soared 35.3% in September after the U.S. imposed a lower 19% tariff on Thai goods, down from the previously announced 36%. The revised rate aligns Thailand with other ASEAN economies and helped strengthen its trade competitiveness. Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, noted that Thai exporters were well-prepared to navigate tariff changes and continue expanding into key markets.

In addition, Thailand and the United States recently reached a new trade framework aimed at eliminating tariff barriers on about 99% of U.S. goods, further boosting trade prospects. The ministry credited greater clarity on U.S. tariff policies for improving exporter confidence and fueling higher trade volumes.

Overall, Thai exports rose 13.9% in the first nine months of 2025, prompting the commerce ministry to revise its full-year export growth forecast to between 9.4% and 10.4%, up from an earlier projection of 2% to 3%. Imports also climbed 17.2% year-on-year in September, exceeding expectations and leading to a trade surplus of $1.28 billion—well above the estimated $0.1 billion.

Despite the strong overall performance, rice exports declined by 15.6% in September and dropped 23.1% during the January–September period to 5.8 million metric tons. Nevertheless, officials expect export growth to continue through the year’s end, albeit at a slower pace.