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American chocolate lovers are in for a bitter surprise this Halloween as cocoa prices have more than doubled since early 2024, according to a recent report by Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. Despite a slight easing in wholesale cocoa prices since late 2024, candy manufacturers continue to pass on higher production costs to consumers. Many companies are also cutting back on seasonal offerings and resorting to “shrinkflation” — reducing product sizes while keeping prices the same.
The dramatic rise in cocoa prices stems from severe supply disruptions in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world’s cocoa. Unusually heavy rains in late 2023 led to black pod disease and widespread crop rot, followed by El Niño-induced droughts in 2024 that worsened the spread of the cocoa swollen shoot virus. As a result, global cocoa production fell 12.9% year-over-year to 4.37 million metric tons — creating a record supply deficit of 494,000 metric tons, the largest in over six decades, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICO). Output from top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana dropped by 25.3% and 31.3%, respectively.
The outlook remains bleak. Wells Fargo noted that preliminary assessments from exporters suggest another 10% decline in output for the 2025/26 crop season, which begins in October. This ongoing shortage is expected to keep cocoa prices high through at least September 2026.
Adding to the cost pressure, recently imposed U.S. tariffs of 15% to 25% on cocoa and cocoa product imports from key suppliers — Ecuador, Ivory Coast, the Dominican Republic, and Ghana — are driving prices even higher. Analysts advise consumers to opt for chocolate treats with less cocoa content, compare prices across stores, and consider generic brands to save money during the festive season.
