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Vietnam’s central bank is expected to face significant challenges in achieving the country’s ambitious economic growth target of more than 10% in 2026, largely due to external pressures such as global monetary tightening and rising trade barriers. A senior official from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) highlighted these concerns during a recent quarterly press conference, pointing to increasing uncertainty in the global economic environment.
Pham Chi Quang, head of the SBV’s Monetary Policy Department, stated that since the beginning of 2025, global financial markets have experienced complicated and unpredictable developments. These include shifting monetary policy signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and changes in U.S. tariff policies, both of which have had a direct impact on Vietnam’s economy, foreign exchange market, and exchange rate stability. According to Quang, these external factors pose major obstacles to sustaining high economic growth in the coming years.
Despite these challenges, Vietnam remains confident about its short-term outlook. Government officials have reiterated that the country is on track to meet its economic growth target of more than 8% in the current year, supported by strong domestic demand, resilient exports, and continued public investment. However, the growth target set for 2026 is significantly more ambitious, exceeding 10%, and will require careful policy coordination and favorable global conditions.
To address these risks, Quang emphasized that the State Bank of Vietnam plans to adopt a flexible monetary policy approach next year. This strategy will be closely coordinated with fiscal policy to ensure macroeconomic stability, manage inflationary pressures, and continue supporting economic growth. The central bank aims to balance growth objectives with the need to stabilize the currency and financial markets amid external volatility.
Vietnam’s economic performance remains closely tied to global trade and capital flows, making it particularly sensitive to foreign tariffs and international monetary policy shifts. As global uncertainties persist, policymakers face the difficult task of navigating external risks while maintaining investor confidence and sustainable growth. The coming year will be critical in determining whether Vietnam can successfully manage these challenges and move closer to its long-term economic growth goals.
