China Trade Surplus Hits $125.6 Billion as June Exports, Imports Smash Forecasts 
US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
Dollar Slides as Softer US Inflation Dims Fed Rate Hike Expectations 
Oil Prices Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates and Strait of Hormuz Risks Grow 
IEA Warns China Rare Earth Export Curbs Could Threaten $6.5 Trillion in Global Production 
Asian Stocks Rally as Cooling U.S. Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Cut Hopes 
Australian Business Conditions Hold Steady as Easing Cost Pressures Face New Oil Price Risks 
China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline 
Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Bets Grow 
Gold Price Holds Near Record High as Cooling U.S. Inflation Offsets Fed Caution 
Asian Stocks Slide as Chip Selloff Deepens Ahead of TSMC Earnings 
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Australia Consumer Sentiment Rises in July as Fuel Price Relief Lifts Confidence 
The Japanese yen edged lower on Friday, trimming its strongest weekly gain in over four months as traders weighed potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy moves and this weekend’s ruling party leadership election. The yen slipped 0.3% to 147.72 per dollar, though it remained on track for a 1.2% weekly gain, the largest since mid-May.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone, stressing risks from the global economy and downplaying the likelihood of an imminent rate hike. Economists at Goldman Sachs echoed this view, saying the probability of an October rate increase is “very low.” Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida earlier noted improving business sentiment and strong corporate profits, though Ueda’s comments highlighted how U.S. economic health could shape Japan’s wage and price outlook.
Political uncertainty also weighed on sentiment. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect its next leader—and Japan’s prime minister—on Saturday. Market watchers suggest a victory by dovish candidate Sanae Takaichi could unsettle bond markets, while contenders Yoshimasa Hayashi and Shinjiro Koizumi are seen as policy-stable options.
Meanwhile, the dollar rebounded modestly despite a U.S. government shutdown halting key data releases, including September’s nonfarm payrolls report. A Chicago Fed estimate suggested unemployment held steady at 4.3% in September, while ADP data pointed to weaker private hiring. Traders now price in an almost certain 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut in October and a high probability of another in December. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that while last month’s cut cushioned downside risks, further easing is not urgent.
Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar hit a four-month low at 1.3968 per U.S. dollar as oil prices slid and uncertainty grew over North American trade negotiations.
The dollar index firmed to 97.90, while the euro inched up to $1.1722 and sterling held at $1.3437. With BOJ policy uncertainty and Japan’s political shift looming, investors remain cautious as global currency markets navigate both U.S. and Japanese crosswinds.
