Bullish ESM5, but seasonals & the VXV/VIX are a worry

Mar 23, 2015 18:55 pm UTC| Commentary

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... While we remain bullish ESM5, targeting 2109/2136 resistance, and have no interest in fighting the tape, we are concerned about near term seasonality and the VXV/VIX ratio. However, to be...

5s30s flattening remain on track

Mar 23, 2015 18:50 pm UTC| Commentary

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... We remain positive on the US 5s30s flattener. Downside targets are seen to 88.8bps, while steepening should not exceed last Wednesdays high of 113.0bps. Below the Feb-09 low at 101.2bps...

Bullish US 10yr yields

Mar 23, 2015 18:39 pm UTC| Commentary

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... We remain bullish US Treasuries from the 5yr point and out. Looking specifically at 10yr yields, the near complete impulsive decline from the 2.259% high points to further yield weakness in...

AUD & NZD turn medium-term bullish

Mar 23, 2015 18:35 pm UTC| Commentary

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... We are constructive on the AUD and NZD. Both are pointing to a medium term turn in trend. In AUD/USD, a close above the 50d (now 0.7835) confirms a turn targeting 0.8296/0.8264, while in...

EUR/USD squeeze not yet finished

Mar 23, 2015 18:35 pm UTC| Commentary

BofA Merrill Lynch notes .... While we remain long term EUR/USD bears, the near term setup points to a further corrective squeeze higher. Gains should be limited to 1.0995/1.1098, but could extend as far as 1.1188...

Fed may delay hikes if core inflation continues to decline this year

Mar 23, 2015 18:29 pm UTC| Commentary

The FOMC dot plot released last week showed the apparent convergence of participants views on the medium-term rates outlook.All but two participants project Fed hikes by the year-end, with a large cluster (41%) projecting...

BoI will probably loosen again if the ILS strengthens

Mar 23, 2015 17:21 pm UTC| Commentary

The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept its base rate on hold today at 0.10%. In its statement, the MPC cited ILS appreciation of 1.9% during the past month as a factor.While deflation continued, near-term inflation expectations...