FxWirePro: Brent futures soar to resume bullish streaks, what causes flip in crude forecasts – Open Arbitrage via box spreads

Oct 11, 2017 11:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

We raise 4Q17 oil price forecasts by 4.50/bbl on Brent and $1/bbl on WTI to reflect the tighter balances now forecast, to $54.50 and $50.00/bbl, respectively. Similarly, for 2018 we raise Brent to $47/bbl, and WTI to...

FxWirePro: Turkish lira IVs highest among EMFX – Bid USD/TRY one touch knock-ins with striking risk/reward

Oct 11, 2017 10:48 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The push and pull of offsetting factors that had nudged us towards a more balanced view on vol were on full display this week. EM gamma spiked sharply as the shakeout in dollar shorts played out most violently in...

FxWirePro: Escalate diplomatic rigidities and mitigate negative carry to short TRY – RVs to smartly positioned

Oct 11, 2017 09:48 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views Central Banks

Escalating diplomatic tensions. Following the diplomatic row between the US and Turkey, we entered a short lira position. To mitigate negative carry, the preferred structure is also short in TRYRUB. Go short TRY on...

FxWirePro: Commodity price outlook propels AUD/USD projections but China still a hindrance

Oct 11, 2017 09:35 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

Revising up RBA forecasts and in turn revise and AUDUSD projections on a brighter commodity price outlook and monetary policy stability in 2018. We still expect AUDUSD to decline modestly over the year ahead. However,...

FxWirePro: Hedge AUD/USD risks via Theta short/Vega longs in Reverse Put Spreads to sync with bullish/bearish scenarios and OTC indications

Oct 11, 2017 07:05 am UTC| Research & Analysis Insights & Views

The bearish AUDUSD scenario below 0.75 if: 1) The unemployment rate moves back towards 6%, forcing the RBA to respond more aggressively to weak inflation; 2) The Fed responds to firm labor market outcomes and...

FxWirePro: AUD/USD bears back in action, major trend acts as per FxWirePro’s whims and fancy popping up with shooting star to drift back in range

Oct 11, 2017 06:06 am UTC| Technicals Insights & Views

Shooting star pattern candles have occurred at 0.8051 and again at 0.8033 levels on AUDUSD peaks of rallies (refer daily chart). The same pattern has occurred at 0.7825 levels on monthly terms Consequently, the bears...

Economist who helped behavioral 'nudges' go mainstream wins Nobel

Oct 10, 2017 14:06 pm UTC| Insights & Views Economy

The 2017 Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to University of Chicagos Richard Thaler for his work in behavioral economics, which is the integration of economics with psychology. While the award was not a total...