Markets are looking for robust US retail sales growth in December but they shouldn’t be

Jan 15, 2016 02:52 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The markets are looking for robust US retail sales growth in December but they shouldnt be. Auto sales slumped by 5% in December, payback from Black Friday that shifted purchases forward into November and left retailers...

China’s strong trade data supports global economy form downfall

Jan 14, 2016 23:11 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

The trade surplus expanded from 343.10 billion Yuan in November to 382.05 billion Yuan in December, according to the Customs General Administration of China (CGAC), while analysts expected the surplus to contract to 338.80...

US economy will likely return to full employment by mid-2016

Jan 14, 2016 16:27 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

US unemployment rate, currently at 5% is already close to the Feds estimate of the NAIRU, the level consistent with full employment. However, the broader so-called U-6 underemployment measure is at 9.9% suggests that some...

Migrant Crisis Series

Refugees and consumption support German economy in 2015

Jan 14, 2016 10:18 am UTC| Commentary Economy

According to official statistics, Germany has taken in 1.1 million refugees and that so far hasnt been bad news for German economy. Government had to increase its budget expenditure in 2015, which boosted overall GDP....

Worrisome Signs Series

Worrisome signs series – US business cycle coming to end?

Jan 14, 2016 09:11 am UTC| Commentary Economy Central Banks

Last time US faced business cycle contraction dates back to 2007, at a time of great recession, which finally ended in June 2009 and it has been expanding since then. Though it is very difficult to gauge how the world...

Sweden’s inflation faces downside risk, will pressure SEK

Jan 14, 2016 09:09 am UTC| Commentary Economy

After Riksbank stated that it will intervene on the FX markets if required, the EUR-SEK has been trading above the 9.20 mark. The pair is expected to have separated from global risk aversion and the main role is now being...

Is Abenomics losing its charm?

Jan 14, 2016 06:38 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Abenomics, which is set of policies introduced in Japan, which includes ambitions such as bringing inflation back in Japan, increase sales tax to balance budget might be losing its charm, at least Novembers Machine tools...