ANZ analysts have upgraded their 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.8% from 4.3%, citing robust industrial production and new policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and market confidence. The bank also raised its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5% from 4.0%.
China’s economy showed strong momentum in early 2025, with industrial production surging 5.9% year-on-year. Retail sales and fixed asset investment also exceeded last year’s averages, reinforcing positive economic trends.
However, challenges persist in the services sector, with urban unemployment rising to 5.4% in February from 5.1% in December. ANZ expects the government to focus on job creation, particularly in the private sector, to address employment concerns.
China’s latest 300 billion yuan trade-in program is expected to stimulate up to 1 trillion yuan in retail sales, supporting domestic consumption. The property sector also showed signs of recovery, with new home sales increasing during the Lunar New Year, although overall investment remains subdued.
ANZ projects China’s economic growth to stay above 5% in the first half of 2025 but warns of potential risks from U.S. tariffs and weakening global demand.
The outlook highlights China’s resilience despite global uncertainties, with industrial expansion and policy-driven stimulus playing key roles in sustaining growth.


Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions
ECB's Kocher Says No Inflation Spillover Yet From Iran Conflict, Warns Risks Remain
Malaysia Q2 Economy Grows 5.8%, Beating Forecasts on Strong Tech Exports and Domestic Demand
Asian Stocks Slide as Chip Selloff Deepens Ahead of TSMC Earnings
AI Chip Stocks Face Valuation Pressure as Investors Shift Toward Big Tech and Software
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar
China Q2 2026 GDP Misses Forecast as Weak Domestic Demand Offsets Export Strength
Asian Stocks Slide as Nikkei Leads Losses on Tech Selloff and Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions
US Stock Futures Fall as Netflix Outlook, Chip Selloff and Iran Tensions Weigh on Markets
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening
US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears
China Home Prices Fall Again in June Despite Slower Pace of Decline
Oil Prices Set for Weekly Surge as U.S.-Iran Conflict Fuels Supply Fears
Gold Prices Head for Biggest Weekly Loss Since June as Fed Rate Outlook Weighs
Brazil Weighs IP Curbs, Patent Suspensions After New U.S. Tariffs
U.S. Imposes 25% Tariff on Select Brazilian Imports After Section 301 Trade Investigation 



