Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.342%, 2.382% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.866%, 2.824% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.661%, 2.613% previous
• Canada Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 52.0, 50.8 forecast, 51.1 previous
• US Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 49.7, 48.8 forecast, 48.5 previous
• US Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov): 48.1, 44.4 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Nov): 50.4, 47.1 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov): 48.4, 47.7 forecast, 46.5 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov): 50.3, 55.2 forecast, 54.8 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.400%, 4.415% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.305%, 4.340% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Current Account (Q3) -10.3B forecast, -10.7B previous
•00:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q3) 0.4% forecast,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Monday against a strengthening U.S. dollar, driven by mounting concerns over a potential government collapse in France, which could derail efforts to address the country’s growing budget deficit. Meanwhile, the dollar extended its gains, buoyed by strong U.S. manufacturing data from both the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global. This raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off on further interest rate cuts at its upcoming policy meeting. Monday’s dollar rally came after its first weekly decline since September 2023, as the so-called Trump trade lost momentum. The euro has lost some 14.5% in value over the last three months, in part because of concern that the health of the euro zone economy might require the European Central Bank to deliver deeper interest rate cuts than previously expected.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0567(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0614(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0478(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0358(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Monday as greenback rose amid political turmoil in France and positive signals for the U.S. economy. U.S., data showed manufacturing contracted at a moderate pace in November, with orders growing for the first time in eight months and factories facing significantly lower prices for inputs. More economic data is expected this week, including the key monthly jobs report on Friday. The Federal Reserve is in focus and Friday's monthly payrolls report could be the deciding factor when policymakers consider whether to cut rates again on Dec. 18.A number of Fed officials are due to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Traders put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at about 60%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2720(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2787 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2612(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2585(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar declined on Monday as strong US dollar weighed on commodity linked Canadian dollar. U.S. data showed that manufacturing contracted at a moderate pace in November, though orders increased for the first time in eight months, and factories saw a significant drop in input prices. More economic data is expected this week, including the key monthly jobs report on Friday. The Federal Reserve is in focus and Friday's monthly payrolls report could be the deciding factor when policymakers consider whether to cut rates again on Dec. 18. The loonie weakened by 0.3% to to 1.40 against the U.S. dollar, or 71.43 U.S. cents, but recovered some early morning losses which saw it falling by almost 0.5%.On the economic data front, Canadian manufacturing activity increased at the fastest pace in 21 months in November.Later in the week, the spotlight will be on key November employment numbers that could dictate how far and how fast the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 14084(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4109(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3981(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3958 (SMA 30).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as dollar was aided by a firmer U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI print. Monday's data once again showed a resilient American economy, with U.S. manufacturing activity improving in November, orders growing for the first time in eight months, and factories facing significantly lower prices for inputs.The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI increased to 48.4 last month from 46.5 in October, which was the lowest level since July 2023.The S&P Global final manufacturing PMI also rose to 49.7, from the initial 48.8 estimate. A number of Fed officials are due to speak this week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Traders put the odds of a quarter-point reduction at about 60%.The dollar gained 0.1% on the yen to 149.87, having shed 3.3% last week in its worst run since July. Support lies around 149.47 with resistance at 151.53.Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.59 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.58 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.67 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.10(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed higher on Monday amid political turmoil in France and positive signals for the U.S. economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.57 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.02 percent.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 scored record closing highs on Monday, boosted by tech-related shares following the market's strong November gains, as investors awaited this week's economic data including the key monthly jobs report on Friday.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.29% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.24% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.96% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak, as the U.S. dollar staged a sharp rally and investors braced for pivotal economic data and Federal Reserve insights on the path of interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $2,636.54 per ounce as of 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT), having fallen as much as 1% earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $2,658.50.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday, as hopes of stronger demand stemming from higher factory activity in China was largely offset by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again at its December meeting.
Brent crude futures settled 1 cent lower at $71.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 10 cents, or 0.15%, to $68.10.
