Market Roundup
• Canada Jul IPPI (YoY) 2.9%,2.8% previous
• Canada Jul IPPI (MoM) 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Canada Jul RMPI (YoY) 4.1%,7.2% previous
• Canada Jul RMPI (MoM) 0.7% ,-0.7% forecast, -1.4% previous
• US Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. -818.00K,-187.00K previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories -4.649M,-2.000M forecast, 1.357M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near flat on Wednesday as the broader uptrend took a breather, with investors focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. This speech is expected to provide key insights on whether the rally will continue or reverse.Investors anticipate that Powell might signal the start of the Fed's rate cut cycle, but they are also on the lookout for hints of more aggressive cuts than the U.S. central bank has currently projected.Adding to the market's caution, the U.S. Department of Labor's preliminary estimate of the NFP benchmark revision indicated a significant reduction in employment figures by 818,000.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1178(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1212(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1098(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1028(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held steady on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar remained under pressure due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The dollar's recent decline has been a key driver in currency markets, with investors increasingly betting that the Fed will implement sharp rate cuts this year.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the closely watched Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming on Friday, a potential market-moving event. Sterling was little changed on Wednesday, trading at $1.3025 after hitting its highest level against the dollar since July 2023 at $1.3054 on Tuesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3107(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3029(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2956(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar reached a four-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, buoyed by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts that bolstered investor sentiment. Recent data revealed that U.S. employers added far fewer jobs than initially reported for the year through March, intensifying the Fed's concerns about the labor market's health as it prepares to start cutting interest rates in September. This weaker-than-expected jobs data weighed on the U.S. dollar, which continued its recent decline against a basket of major currencies.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3590 to the U.S. dollar, after reaching its strongest intraday level since April 10 at 1.3576. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3653(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3577 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3551 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Wednesday following the release of data showing that U.S. employers added 818,000 fewer jobs in the year leading up to March than previously reported. This news comes just ahead of a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday, where markets will be watching closely for any new insights into his assessment of the labor market.Investors are seeking clarity on the potential size of a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming September 17-18 meeting, as well as indications of whether borrowing costs might be reduced at each subsequent Fed meeting. The dollar index fell 0.33% to 101.03, its lowest level since December 28. Strong resistance can be seen at 146.45(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.97(50 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.06(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 144.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Wednesday, with automobile stocks leading the gains, as investors awaited the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting to assess the direction of global monetary policy.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.52 percent.
U.S. stocks moved higher on Wednesday in range-bound trading as investors processed a significant downward revision in payrolls and the release of the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting minutes, which reinforced expectations for a rate cut in September.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.14 percent, S&P 500 was up 0.42 percent, Nasdaq was up by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices regained ground on Wednesday, staying close to their all-time highs after the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting revealed a strong inclination towards an interest rate cut at the September policy meeting.
As of 2:42 p.m. ET (1842 GMT), spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,516.01 per ounce, following a record high of $2,531.60 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,547.50.
Oil prices fell by $1 a barrel on Wednesday following a sharp downward revision of key employment statistics by the U.S. government, closely watched by investors.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.15, or 1.49%, at $76.05 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $1.24 lower or 1.69% at $71.93.
