Market Roundup
•Canada IPPI (YoY) (Sep) 5.5%, 3.7% previous
•Canada IPPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.8%,0.2% previous
•Canada RMPI (YoY) (Sep) 8.4%,3.0% previous
•Canada RMPI (MoM) (Sep) 1.7%,-0.8% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.020%,2.019% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.987%,1.958% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.015%, 2.009% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 21:45 New Zealand Exports (Sep) 5.94B previous
• 21:45 New Zealand Imports (Sep) 7.12B previous
• 21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Sep) -2,990M previous
• 21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Sep) -1,185M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• 23:45 Australia RBA Assistant Governor Jones Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as investor focus shifted to political developments in Japan and the eurozone, while ongoing concerns over U.S. credit risks weighed on market sentiment. Markets remain cautious about fully discounting French political risk, with the government’s decision to freeze its controversial pension reform offering only temporary relief amid already fragile budget negotiations. On Friday, S&P Global downgraded France’s credit rating by one notch, citing political instability as a threat to the government’s fiscal repair efforts. This follows recent downgrades from Fitch, DBRS, and S&P over the past month, with Moody’s scheduled to announce its review of France later this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1678(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1753(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1641(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of U.K. inflation data later this week and amid rising fiscal concerns ahead of November’s autumn budget. Wednesday’s CPI report will be closely watched for signals on the Bank of England’s potential interest-rate cuts. A weaker-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for earlier policy easing, while a surprise rise in inflation might prompt markets to temper bets on near-term cuts. The data will play a key role in shaping market sentiment ahead of the BoE’s next meeting, as policymakers weigh slowing growth against persistently high price pressures. Meanwhile, investors also monitored the U.S. federal government shutdown, now in its 20th day, which has delayed the release of key economic reports from government agencies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3562(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3303(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3269(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar held near a six-month low against the U.S. dollar on Monday as oil prices slipped and the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys reinforced expectations of another rate cut this month. Canada’s consumer price index for September, due Tuesday, could provide further insight into the BoC’s rate-cut prospects, with economists forecasting inflation to rise to 2.3% year-on-year, up from 1.9% in August. Swap market data show investors currently see a 77% probability of a rate cut at the BoC’s October 29 policy meeting. Last month, the central bank reduced its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 2.50%. Meanwhile, oil, one of Canada’s key exports, fell 1% to $56.97 per barrel amid concerns over a supply glut. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.4025 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.4006 to 1.4051. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4090(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4117 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3996(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3972(SMA20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as the Japanese currency weakened ahead of a key political shift in Tokyo. Hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi appeared set to become Japan’s first female prime minister following a decisive parliamentary vote on Tuesday. Her expected premiership, supported by a new coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, has stirred concerns over potential fiscal expansion, adding pressure on the yen.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata who opposed the decision to keep rates steady in September reiterated his call for resuming rate hikes, offering some support to the currency. The BOJ’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 30, with markets pricing in a 23% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.34 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.26 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.32 (Oct 17th low).
Equities Recap
European stocks climbed on Monday as easing concerns over U.S. banking stability and remarks from President Trump on trade encouraged investors toward riskier assets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.93 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.39 percent.
Wall Street surged on Monday, led by tech stocks, as upbeat quarterly earnings boosted investor risk appetite.
At GMT 19:26 Dow Jones closed up by 1.11% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.06 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.34% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold jumped more than 2% on Monday, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and ongoing safe-haven demand ahead of U.S.-China trade talks and key inflation data.
Spot gold was up 2.3% at $4,346.39 per ounce, as of 1:47 p.m. ET (1746 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 3.5% higher at $4,359.40 per ounce.
Oil prices fell to their lowest levels since early May on Monday as investors weighed a potential global supply glut, with U.S.-China trade tensions fueling concerns over slowing demand.
Brent crude futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.46%, at $61.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $57.52.
