Market Roundup
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q3) 0.60%, 1.00% previous
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.3%, 0.5% previous
•Canada GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.49%, 1.09% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Sep) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q3) 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•USD Chicago PMI (Nov) 40.2, 44.9 forecast, 41.6 previous
•Canada CAD Budget Balance (YoY) (Sep) -13.01B, -9.84B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Sep) -3.17B, -2.55B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 CNY Chinese Composite PMI (Nov) N/A, 50.8 previous
•01:30 CNY Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.3 forecast, 50.1 previous
•01:30 CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar dipped as markets rekindled hopes for a U.S. rate cut in December. Eurozone inflation rose from 2% in October to 2.3% in November, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed on Friday, above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Eurozone inflation rose from 2% in October to 2.3% in November, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed on Friday, above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank should keep its options open for a bigger rate cut next month, countering hawkish comments from peer Isabel Schnabel the previous day.The euro has tumbled about 2.8% in November, putting it on course for its worst month since May of last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0592(Nov 27th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0634(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0531(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0415(23.6%fib)
GBP/USD: The pound remained steady on Friday, positioning it for its largest weekly gain since mid-September, as the dollar lost some of its post-election gains. The dollar dropped as bond yields fell on Monday after President-elect Donald Trump picked hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, which reassured some investors that his more radical and inflationary policies may be tempered.Sterling was last at $1.269 after rising to a two-week high of $1.275 in early trading, and was set for a weekly gain of 1.2%.Sterling has held up better than almost all other developed economy currencies this year bar the dollar, as economic growth has ticked along and wage and services inflation has remained strong, limiting the scope for BoE cuts. Data on Friday showed British lenders approved the most mortgages for house purchase since August 2022 last month, although consumer credit growth slowed slightly to its weakest in nearly two years. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2755(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2800 (Psychologicallevel).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2652(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2519(23.6%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday but was still headed for a weekly and monthly decline as domestic gross domestic product data bolstered bets for an outsized interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada in December.Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1% in the third quarter, undershooting the Bank of Canada's forecast of 1.5%, after growing 2.2% in the prior quarter. Investors see a roughly 50% chance the BoC opts for a second consecutive unusually large half-percentage-point move at the Dec. 11 policy announcement, up from 31% before the data, swaps market data showed. A 25-basis-point step is fully priced into the market.The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.1% to 1.40 per U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3981 to 1.4045. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.34033 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4099(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3975(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3917(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined to hit six week low against the yen on Friday after faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo supported bets for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next month. Japan's currency has been boosted by safe-haven flows amid Trump's broad tariff warnings to Mexico, Canada and China this week, and by growing bets that the BOJ will raise rates again on Dec. 19.Traders currently lay about 57% odds for a quarter-point increase, and just over half of economists in a Reuters poll predicted the same. Potentially adding to the case for a hike, Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.2% in November from a year earlier. That exceeded a median market forecast for a 2.1% gain and accelerated from a 1.8% increase in October. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.08 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.58 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.38 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.67(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended higher on Friday as investors reacted to the latest inflation data for the Eurozone.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.78 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record closing highs in a shortened Black Friday session, boosted by gains in technology stocks like Nvidia (NVDA.O), while retail stocks drew attention as the holiday shopping season began.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.42%percent, S&P 500 up down by 0.56 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.83 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, bullion was still on track for its worst monthly loss since September of last year, following a post-election sell-off triggered by Donald Trump's victory.
Spot gold climbed 0.5% to $2,652.71 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), but remained set for a weekly decline of over 2% after a sharp drop earlier in the week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $2,681.
Oil prices dipped on Friday, recording a weekly decline of over 3%, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased. Additionally, the outlook for increased supply in 2025, despite OPEC+ likely extending output cuts, added pressure to prices.
Brent crude fell 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.05%, to settle at $68, from the last close before Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.
