Market Roundup
• Canada Trade Balance (Oct): -0.58B, -1.40B forecast, 0.24B previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3): -1.9%, 0.0% forecast, -2.9% previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 4.9%, 4.9% forecast, 4.1% previous
•US Trade Balance (Oct): -29.40B, -58.10B forecast, -48.10B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,914K, 1,900K forecast, 1,858K previous
•US Exports (Oct): 302.00B, 289.30B previous
•US Imports (Oct): 331.40B, 342.10B previous
•Canada Imports (Oct): 66.19B, 64.04B previous
•Canada Exports (Oct): 65.61B, 64.29B previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 211.75K, 219.00K previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.550%, 3.590% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.540%, 3.580% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 5.4%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•US Consumer Credit (Nov): 4.23B, 10.10B forecast, 9.24B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•01:30 China CPI (YoY) (Dec): 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
•01:30 China CPI (MoM) (Dec): -0.1% previous
•01:30 China PPI (YoY) (Dec): -2.0%, -2.2% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Nov): 1.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
•05:00 Japan Coincident Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•05:00 Japan Leading Index (Nov): 110.4 forecast, 109.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Thursday as markets absorbed Eurozone data and looked for new catalysts.The euro area unemployment rate slipped to 6.3% in November from 6.4% in October, beating expectations of no change German industrial orders rose unexpectedly in November, jumping 5.6% month-on-month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis .Eurozone consumer confidence improved to -13.1 in December 2025, marking its highest level since October 2024.Looking ahead, Eurozone calendar includes retail sales, ECB’s Philip Lane’s remarks, and German Industrial Production, while the U.S. data features Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and housing data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1687(Jan 8th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1646(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1622(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Thursday as stronger dollar and fading risk appetite weighed on British currency. The greenback edged up after mixed U.S. economic data left markets cautious ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed British house prices rose by a slower-than-expected 0.3% in the year to December .Near term sterling moves will be dollar-driven, as clearer indications about the UK economy will have to wait for gross domestic product data due next week and jobs data the week after .Sterling was down 0.1% at $1.3444 against the greenback, after hitting $1.3567 on Tuesday, its highest level since September 18.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3417(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3299(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar steadied near a one-month low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the recent increase in geopolitical uncertainty weighed on commodity-linked currencies and investors awaited domestic jobs data.Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, which has been buffeted this week by the prospect of increased crude supply from Venezuela.Data on Thursday showed that Canada recorded a smaller-than-expected trade deficit in October and the share of exports to the United States fell to its lowest ever non-pandemic level.Canada's employment report for December, due on Friday, is expected to show the economy shedding 5,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.6%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3908 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3955 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3845(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3763(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen as investors awaited Friday’s key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could shed light on the labor market and the Fed’s rate path. Thursday’s data showed a moderate rise in weekly jobless claims amid low layoffs, while November job openings fell more than expected and hiring slowed. Traders are pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year, though the central bank indicated in December only one cut is likely in 2026. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this month, with Jerome Powell’s term as chair ending in May.The dollar was up 0.13% against the Japanese yen at 156.965. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.63(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.22 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.63(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped Thursday as tech sell-offs and weak retail results weighed, while softer gold and copper prices dampened overall market sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.12 percent.
Wall Street closed mixed Thursday, with tech stocks like Nvidia falling, while defense shares rose after Trump proposed a $1.5 trillion military budget.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.55 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.01 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.44% percent
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed more than 3% Thursday to a two‑week high, rebounding from recent losses as investors weighed news from Venezuela and concerns over supplies from Russia, Iraq and Iran.
Brent futures rose $2.03, or 3.4%, to settle at $61.99 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.77, or 3.2%, to settle at $57.76.
Gold remained steady Thursday as investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls for Fed clues, while short-term pressure from commodity index adjustments limited gains.
Spot gold was unchanged at $4,452.64 per ounce, as of 01:34 p.m. ET (1834 GMT), after recording a session-low of $4,406.89 earlier.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled slightly lower at $4,460.70
