Market Roundup
- US Retail Sales MM Jun -0.3%, f/c 0.2%, 1%-previous.
- US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jun -0.1%, f/c 0.5%, 0.8%-previous.
- US Retail Control Jun -0.1%, f/c 0.4%, 0.7%-previous.
- Secret IMF report: Greece needs debt relief far beyond EU plans.
- Euro leaders say knew of latest IMF debt analysis for Greece (EU official).
- EU exec to recommend use of EFSM for Greek bridge financing.
- Greek PM Tsipras will not resign, govt reshuffle after bailout vote likely (Official).
- Greek Econ Minister Stathakis: banks will not open until after ECB restores funding support.
- Greek opposition party Potami says will back Tsipras in parliament.
- Germany's Schaeuble: will take at least four weeks to agree to bailout.
- BOE's Carney: should not expect tighter monetary conditions through stronger GBP to remove need for higher rates, wage data through April may be firmer than expected in May.
- BOE's Miles: sees good reasons for thinking its likely UK inflation will rise in '16, waiting too long to begin path of gradual rate hikes would be a bad mistake.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
- 0:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Jul -6.9%-previous
- 1:30 AU New Motor Veh Sales m/m Jun -1.3%-previous
- 2:00 CN Urban invt (ytd)yy Jun f/c 11.2%, 11.4%-previous
- 2:00 CN Industrial Output YY Jun f/c 6%, 6.1%-previous
- 2:00 CN Retail Sales YY Jun f/c 10.2%, 10.1%-previous
- 2:00 CN GDP YY Q2 f/c 6.9%, 7%-previous
- 2:00 CN GDP QQ SA Q2 f/c 1.7%, 1.3%-previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
- 03:00 JP Bank of Japan Int rate announcement/monetary policy committee statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0961 levels and currently trading at 1.1004 levels. It has made session high at 1.1081 and low at 1.0991 levels. The pair gained against US dollar, after US retail sales printed negative figures, it reached high at 1.1083 and retreated back by breaking support at 1.1060 (38.2% retracement level), the pair is all set to test next support level at 1.0967 (23.6 retracement level) in the coming session. Greece parliament will vote on third bailout tomorrow, Greek lawmakers have to pass the recently concluded deal it into law, implementation of the deal is set to be another big task for Greece. Greece's Government party officials have said, cabinet shuffle is likely to take place but PM Tsipras will not resign from his post. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1060. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.0967. Overall trend of this pair is bearish, but this pair should be traded with caution due to political events ahead in the coming days.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is supported around 1.5547 levels and currently trading at 1.5634 levels. It has made session high at 1.5639 and low at 1.5555 levels. The cable surged to hit weekly high at 1.5633 against US Dollar after, Bank of England Governor Carney said, time for a rise in interest rate is getting closer. The cable's bullish momentum was also fueled by drop in US retail sales. UK CPI printed 0.0% against 0.1%. But this negative data reading didn't have any bearing on the cable movements after the data was released. The cable was trading in more or less in the same range. The focus now shifts to Fed's chair Yellens testimonials later in the day, traders will keenly keep an eye on Fed Yellen's tone on interest rate hike. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5639. To the downside, major support level is located at 1.5547.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is supported around 0.9403 levels and currently trading at 0.9451 levels. The pair broke strong resistance at 0.9430 and is bouncing to test next resistance level at 0.9477 (61.8% retracement level). It has made session high at 0.9473 and low at 0.9402 levels. The pair fell sharply from 0.9465 to test resistance level at 0.9402 after, US retail sales came negative in the early US session. The Swiss franc rebounded after, market stabilized from US soft data and bounced back to break resistance level at 0.9432 and hit high at 0.9473. Currently the pair is consolidating at 0. the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9477 ( 61.8% retracement level). To the downside, major support level is located at 0.9367.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is supported around 122.90 levels and currently trading at 123.38 levels. It has made session high at 123.44 and low at 122.90 levels. The pair failed to break support level at 123.50 and fell drastically towards 122.92 after US retail sales printed negative figures. The pair bounced back from 122.92 levels in the mid US session and recovered the early losses. The focus shifts towards Greece, with Greece parliament set to vote on third bailout. If any uncertainties arise from Greece, Japanese Yen is set to be preferred as safe heaven, on the technical side the pair is in overbought condition and RSI indicating bullish bias. To the upside, major resistance can be seen at 123.74 (July 14th high). To the downside, major support level is located at 122.91. Overall trend of this pair is bullish in the medium and long term.
