Market Roundup
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.0% 3.1% , foecast,3.1%previois
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Sep) 330.54 ,329.79 previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast ,0.4% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.0% ,3.1% forecast 2.9% previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a (Sep) 324.80, 325.01 forecast, 323.98 previous
•US CPI Index, s.a (Sep) 324.37, 323.36 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) 0.25% ,0.29% previous
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) -0.2%, 0.2% forecast -0.3% previous
•US Belgium NBB Business Climate (Oct) -9.1 ,-7.8 forecast,-7.9 previous
•UK US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.2 ,51.9 forecast, 52.0 previous
• US S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 54.8 ,53.9 previous
• US S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 55.2, 53.5 forecast, 54.2 previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) 4.6%, 4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) 3.9%, 3.7% forecast 3.7% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct) 50.3 ,51.2 forecast, 51.7 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) 53.6, 55.0 forecast, 55.1 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Oct) 58.6, 61.0 forecast ,60.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the dollar on Friday, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone business activity data. Eurozone activity accelerated in October, with new orders rising at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half years, signaling stronger economic momentum at the start of the final quarter. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 52.2 from 51.2 in September, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion, hitting a 17-month high and surpassing forecasts of 51.0.While activity in France fell faster than expected due to weaker demand amid political uncertainty, Germany’s private sector recorded its strongest growth in nearly two-and-a-half years, driven by robust services sector activity. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped against the dollar on Friday as dovish expectations from the BoE outweighed the impact of stronger UK economic data. Official figures showed retail sales rose 0.5% in September, defying forecasts of a decline, driven by strong demand for new iPhones and gold from online jewellers. A separate survey showed a modest rise in consumer confidence, with households more willing to spend. Wednesday’s data showed inflation remained steady, contrary to expectations of a rise, while government borrowing though at its highest since 2020 was slightly closer to official forecasts than previously estimated. Market pricing now reflects a 75% probability of a BoE rate cut by December 18, up from 45% before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as trade talks between Ottawa and Washington stalled, and markets anticipated an upcoming Bank of Canada rate cut. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said President Donald Trump is frustrated with Canada over the stalled negotiations, which led to a suspension of trade talks.According to a poll, the Bank of Canada is expected to lower its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on October 29 to support the slowing economy. Canada's inflation rose to 2.4% last month from 1.9% in August, but will remain largely contained around the middle of the BoC's 1%-3% target range over the coming years, the poll showed.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4015 per U.S. dollar , after moving in a range of 1.3975 to 1.4039. For the week, the currency was nearly unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4040(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4080(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3967(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3901(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Friday after fresh inflation data that showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in September, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week.The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% last month and 3.0% in the 12 months through September. Economists polled had forecast the CPI increasing by 0.4% for the month and rising 3.1% year-on-year. The CPI report was published despite an economic data blackout because of the government shutdown. The figure, used by the Social Security Administration to calculate its cost-of-living adjustment for millions of retirees and other benefits recipients, was initially due on October 15. Data earlier on Friday showed Japan's core consumer prices stayed above the central bank's 2% target, keeping alive expectations of a near-term rate hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at a record high on Friday, boosted by cooler than expected U.S. inflation data and hopes of an easing in U.S.-Chinese trade tensions, as investors assessed a slew of corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.15 percent.
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs on Friday, boosted by cooler-than-expected inflation data and strong corporate earnings, ahead of next week’s earnings reports and a widely anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut.
Dow Jones closed at 1.01% percent, S&P 500 closed at 0.79 % percent, Nasdaq was closed at 1.15% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold trimmed losses on Friday after slightly softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data supported expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, though it remained on track for its first weekly decline in 10 weeks.
Spot gold fell 0.2% at $4,118.29 per ounce by 01:42 p.m. ET (1742 GMT), after falling nearly 2% earlier in the session. The price is down over 3% for the week.
Oil prices slipped on Friday amid doubts over the Trump administration’s resolve to enforce sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies linked to the Ukraine conflict.
Brent crude futures settled 5 cents, or 0.1%, lower at $65.94 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures <CLc1> finished at $61.50 a barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5%.
