Market Roundup
- US National Activity Index Feb-0.11, (previous -0.1)
- US Existing Home Sales Feb 4.88m, (consensus 4.90m, previous 4.82m)
- US Exist. Home Sales % Chg Feb 1.2%, (consensus 1.7%, previous -4.9%)
- Mexico Private Spending QQ Q4 0.5%, (previous 0.5%)
- Mexico Aggregate Demand QQ Q4 1%, (previous 0.6%)
- Mexico Aggregate Demand YY Q4 4%, (previous 3%)
- Mexico Private Spending YY Q4 2.7%, (previous 2.2%)
- Fed's Fischer rate hike warranted before the end of the yr, data will determine whether fed hikes rates in June, September or other date, extremely low rates increase risk of financial instability, says ECB QE putting downward pressure on LT US rates
- ECB's Draghi asked about running Grexit scenarios says normal for ECB risk analysts to look at different scenario's, says govt of Greece should commit to fully honor debt obligations
- ECB's Draghi expects EZ inflation to remain very low or negative in coming months, add'l measures may be used to improve banks capital & liquidity position, on QE sees no signs that there will not be enough bonds to purchase
- ECB's Draghi liquidity situation has been deteriorating Greek bank dependence on ECB funding has increased
- Germany's Merkel says in news conference with Tsipras the Greek reform program will be evaluated not by Germany but by Eurogroup
- Greece's Tsipras says we have to remove the stereotypes Greeks are not lazy nor are Germans to blame for the problems in Greece
- EC says strong political will not enough, action needed from Greece
- Brazil CB poll 2015 inflation at 8.12 v 7.93% pvs week, '15 GDP growth at -0.83 v -0.78%
- Brazil poll shows 64.8% rate Pres Rousseff's govt as bad or terrible (CNT/MDA)
- PepsiCo announces Richard Fisher fmr Pres & CEO of FRB-Dallas elected to Bd of Directors
- Reuters Poll SARB to keep rates on hold in March, to raise rates 25bps in Q4 '15
- Reuters Poll 19/21 traders say ECB won't cut deposit rate below -0.2%
- (2135 ET/ 0135 GMT) Japan Manufacturing PMI Flash Mar (previous 51.6)
- (2145 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Mfg PMI Flash Mar (consensus 50.6, previous 50.70)
- (2200 ET/ 0200 GMT) FRB-SF President John Williams speaks on the econ outlook before a group of Australian economists
- (0050 ET/ 0450 GMT) RBA Asst Gov Edey participates in a panel discussion at the ASIC Annual Forum 2015
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY extends decline to 119.60. After falling 60 pips from the 120.15 priced in the European morning, the USD/JPY is now testing daily lows at 119.60. Right now USD/JPY has few drivers for a decisive growth. If the pair manages to break below 119.60, it will find next supports at 119.30, 119.00 and 118.80. To the upside, resistances are at 119.80, 119.90 and 120. the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 119.64, down 0.32% on the day, with a daily high at 120.18 and low at 119.58. Option expiries for Tuesday 24th March: 119.00 (300M), 120.00 (369M), 120.15-20 (380M), 121.00-10 (1.5BLN) 121.50 (1.65BLN)
EUR/USD: Market participants almost ignored today's meeting between A.Merkel and A.Tsipras in Berlin. EUR/USD remained indifferent, now attempting a consolidation pattern in the upper end of the intraday range just below 1.0950. Preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs will be the main highlight for the euro bloc Tuesday. Currently the pair trades at 1.0943 up 1.13% on the day. Resistance seen at 1.0956 (high ) ahead of 1.1000 (psychological level) and then 1.1062 (high ). While supports lie at 1.0699 (100-h MA), 1.0670 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0650 (low ). Option expiries for Tuesday 24th March: 1.0850 (946M), 1.0900 (1BLN), 1.0950 (1.6BLN)
EUR/GBP: EUR/GBP's rally has been in consolidation in the US session. Growing uncertainty around the political structure of the UK with elections on the way kept the cross bid. EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7323 with a high of 0.7331 and a low of 0.7227. February 18th low at 0.7349 is next resistance, while a break of this would expose the 0.7400 level. On the lower side, supports lie at 0.7202 ahead of the March 19 low at 0.7155. Option expiries for Tuesday 24th March: 0.7225 (1.2BLN). USD/CAD: 1.2610-15 (700M)
AUD/USD: Pair trades around the vicinity of the 55-day moving average at 0.7863. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7881 with a high of 0.7875 and a low of 0.7762. Pressures remain to the downside within the broader rage. February high at 0.7912 would be the next target for the bulls.
GBP/USD: Range bound ahead of busy week. 1.50 handle caps the pair on minor recoveries. Continued topside failures makes the downside compelling but fundamentals remain strong. However In the calendar this week CPI's for both the UK and the US will be in focus. GBP/USD is currently at 1.4930 trading with a high of 1.4975 and a low of 1.4837.
