Market Roundup
- US Mortgage Market Index w/e 435.6, 501.8-prev
- US MBA Purchase Index w/e 162.7, 175.1-prev
- US Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2012.8, 2395.8-prev
- US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate w/e 3.93%, 3.84%-prev
- US Building Permits: Number Jan 1.053m, f/c 1.069m, 1.060m-prev
- US Build Permits: Change MM Jan -0.7%, 0%-prev
- US Housing Starts Number MM Jan 1.065m, f/c 1.070m, 1.087m-prev
- US House Starts MM: Change Jan -2%, 7.1%-prev
- US PPI Final Demand MM Jan -0.8%, f/c -0.4%, -0.2%-prev
- US PPI ex-Food/Energy MM Jan -0.1%, f/c 0.1%, 0.3%-prev
- US PPI Final Demand YY Jan 0%, f/c 0.3%, 1.1%-prev
- US PPI ex-Food/Energy YY Jan 1.6%, f/c 2%, 2.1%-prev
- US Redbook MM w/e 0.8%, 0.2%-prev
- US Redbook YY w/e 3.2%, 2.1%-prev
- US Industrial Output MM Jan 0.2%, f/c 0.3%, -0.3%-prev
- US Capacity Utilization MM Jan 79.4%, f/c 79.9%, 79.4%-prev
- US Manuf Output MM Jan 0.2%, f/c 0.3%, 0%-prev
- CA Wholesale Trade MM Dec 2.5%, f/c 0.3%, -0.3%-prev
- Fed minutes- officials worried about hiking rates too soon, given weak inflation & other risks, wants more evidence of cont'd growth signs that inflation will rise to target before commencing hikes
- Fed cited heightened overseas risk as potential threat to US recovery, concerned dropping 'patience' from guidance risks tying market expectations to a narrow range of dates for rate lift-off
- ECB raises emergency funding cap to Greek banks to 68.3 bln euros (source)
- Increase in ELA is to cover Greek bank's needs not the Greek state's ST borrowing needs
- Athens to request extension of loan agreement on Thursday morning (Greek govt official)
- U.S.'s Lew urges Greece to find a "constructive path" in debt talks
- Greek FinMin Varoufakis believes Eurogroup will back Athens proposal on Friday
- Greece to run out of cash by end-March without new aid -source (Reuters Exclusive)
- EU Commission sees worrying tendencies in Greece's economic and financial situation
- Denmark's Corydon No 'Plan B' for Danish currency policy, peg against euro still quite sufficient as 'Plan A'
- BOE's McCafferty: best to hold rates for a time longer, All MPC members agree next rate move likely higher (LBC Radio)
- BOE's McCafferty sterling strength "slightly uncomfortable"
- Banxico revises 2015 growth to b/w 2.5-3.5% from 3-4% in last QIR
- Mexico's Carstens Oil slump could hurt Mexico energy reform, but impact limited
- Brazil's Levy says confident Congress to back fiscal rigor, govt will work to meet primary surplus goal of 1.2% of GDP this year, monetary policy to become more restrictive
- Brazil YE '15 inflation f/c at 7.27% from 7.15%, GDP growth at -0.42% from 0%
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Inv w/e (previous 199.5b)
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest Japan Stock w/e (previous -477.1b)
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan Exports YY Jan (consensus 11.9%, previous 12.90%)
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan Imports YY Jan (consensus -4.8%, previous 1.90%)
- (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan Trade Bal Total Yen Jan (consensus -1690.8b, previous -660.7b)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Producer Prices - Inputs QQ Q4 (previous -1.50%)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand PPI Output Q4 (previous -1.10%)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Price dived to session lows of 118.55 on dovish Fed Minutes & USD-JPY yield plunge. The pair could fall to 61.8% retracement level at 118.42 if the yields continue to slump. Drag from yields partly offset by risk rebound. Pair currently trades at 118.62, support at 118.16, resistance at 119.40/119.87. Option expiries for Thursday Feb 19th: 118.50 (695M), 119.00 (2.3BLN), 119.40 (800M), 120.00 (1.2BLN)
USD/CAD: USD/CAD rebound to session highs at 1.2423 but backed off again as mixed Fed minutes, inflation comments weighed. USD/CAD now recovering from lows around 1.2390. Pair is up 0.35% on the day at 1.2417. A surpass of 1.2480 would open the door to 1.2493 (21-d MA) and then 1.2529 (Tenkan Sen). Supports seen at 1.2360 / 1.2353 /1.2302.
EUR/USD: Euro saw buying interest reviving after a softer tone from the FOMC minutes today. EUR/USD spiked ~1.1400 post Fed minutes. Currently the pair is down 0.26% at 1.1387 with supports at 1.1320 / 1.1300. On the upside, a breakout of 1.1450 would aim for 1.1486 and then 1.1499 (high Feb.5). Option expiries for Thursday Feb 19th: EUR/USD: 1.1200 (2.1BLN), 1.1250-60 (850M), 1.1350 (715M), 1.1400 (2BLN)
GBP/USD: Cable rallied after the release of dovish FOMC minutes to a new session high at 1.5480, before falling to 1.5450 as the NY session ends. Pair is currently on the bid post the neutral minutes from the FOMC, trading at 1.5470 with a high of 1.5480 and a low of 1.5340. Option expiries for Thursday Feb 19th: 1.5385-1.5400 (450M)
AUD/USD: FOMC spike took the Aussie half a cent higher and on to the 0.78 handle. Fundamentally, the AUD has also found support on the RBA's February minutes that lowered the chances of a March cut. A combination of a strong dollar and continued weakness in the commodity sector could should keep the Aussie on its knees and allow for further weakness in the pair. AUD/USD is currently settling in on the 0.7820 support post the FOMC spike
