Market Roundup
• Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3): -0.4%, -0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3): -0.4%, -0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•Japan GDP (YoY) (Q3): -1.8%, -2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous.
•Japan GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3): 1.0%, 0.8% previous.
•Japan GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q3): -0.2%, 0.2% previous.
•Japan GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q3): 2.8%, 3.1% forecast, 2.9% previous.
•Japan GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q3): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Oct): -0.3%forecast, -0.2% previous.
• 09:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Oct): 1.2% forecast, 1.6% previous.
• 09:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Oct): 1.4% previous.
• 09:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Oct): -0.2% forecast, 1.3% previous.
• 09:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Oct): 1.3% forecast, 1.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as dollar firmed as investors braced for the release of a slew of U.S. economic data following the end of the government's shutdown. Market participants are awaiting U.S. data releases this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, for clues on the health of the world's largest economy.The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday it was working to update its schedule of economic data releases affected by the recently ended government shutdown.Traders are currently pricing in a 46% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut next month, down from 50% in last week. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers,rose 0.14% to 99.46. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling remained under pressure after the sharp swings seen late last week, triggered by reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has no intention of raising income tax rates in the upcoming budget. The announcement surprised and unsettled investors, many of whom had expected an income tax hike to help plug a sizeable fiscal shortfall. The disappointment led to a jump in government borrowing costs on Friday as markets reassessed the fiscal outlook.Analysts warn that Reeves will still need to raise tens of billions of pounds to stay aligned with her fiscal rules ahead of the November 26 annual budget. With limited room for alternative revenue measures, financial markets had viewed an increase in income tax as the most dependable and politically feasible option.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday ahead of the RBA’s release of minutes from its November policy meeting. The minutes, due Tuesday, come as debate intensifies over how restrictive current monetary settings truly are. Markets are also watching Australia’s quarterly wages report on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a 0.8% increase, keeping annual growth at 3.8%. Such figures would underline persistent labour-market tightness following last week’s strong jobs data. Swaps now assign only a 40% probability of an RBA rate cut in May, as stronger-than-expected data has fuelled expectations that the easing cycle may already be over. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6544(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as broader dollar momentum outweighed Japan’s slightly better-than-expected Q3 GDP numbers. Japan’s economy contracted nearly 2% in the three months to September its first decline in six quarters as U.S. tariffs hit exports, government data showed Monday. GDP fell 1.8% year-on-year after a revised 2.3% gain in the prior quarter, beating forecasts for a 2.5% drop. On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.4%, less severe than the expected 0.6% contraction. Most economists believe the latest figures will have only a modest impact on the Bank of Japan’s rate outlook, though an adviser close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi assigned the data more weight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asia’s markets started the week on the back foot, dragged down by renewed tensions between China and Japan that hit Japanese stocks particularly hard..
Hang Seng was down 0.81% ,South Korea’s KOSPI traded up 1.94% ,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.10%
Commodities’ Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Monday, weighed down by a firmer dollar as investors awaited a slate of U.S. economic data this week that may offer clearer insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,062.96 per ounce, as of 0608 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.7% to $4,064.50 per ounce.
Crude prices fell on Monday, giving back the gains made last week, as Russia resumed loadings at the key Novorossiysk export terminal.
Brent crude futures dropped 53 cents, or 0.82%, to $63.86 a barrel at 0423 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $59.53 a barrel, down 56 cents, or 0.93% from Friday's close.
